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  • Jul
    01

    Run Differential Through June 30

    Written by Kerry Leibowitz

    Run Differential Through June 30

     

    AMERICAN LEAGUE

                         

    Team

    R

    OR

    R DIFF

    G

    R/G

    OR/G

    DIFF/G

    PW%

    EXP W

    ACT W

    W DIFF

    Baltimore

    410

    382

    28

    83

    4.94

    4.60

    0.34

    .535

    44

    47

    3

    Boston

    431

    351

    80

    84

    5.13

    4.18

    0.95

    .601

    51

    50

    -1

    Chicago

    298

    350

    -52

    79

    3.77

    4.43

    -0.66

    .420

    33

    32

    -1

    Cleveland

    396

    368

    28

    82

    4.83

    4.49

    0.34

    .537

    44

    44

    0

    Detroit

    396

    325

    71

    80

    4.95

    4.06

    0.89

    .598

    48

    43

    -5

    Houston

    310

    422

    -112

    82

    3.78

    5.15

    -1.37

    .350

    29

    30

    1

    Kansas City

    313

    304

    9

    79

    3.96

    3.85

    0.11

    .515

    41

    38

    -3

    Los Angeles

    382

    376

    6

    82

    4.66

    4.59

    0.07

    .508

    42

    39

    -3

    Minnesota

    329

    357

    -28

    78

    4.22

    4.58

    -0.36

    .459

    36

    36

    0

    New York

    310

    326

    -16

    81

    3.83

    4.02

    -0.20

    .475

    38

    42

    4

    Oakland

    388

    333

    55

    83

    4.67

    4.01

    0.66

    .576

    48

    48

    0

    Seattle

    297

    363

    -66

    82

    3.62

    4.43

    -0.80

    .401

    33

    35

    2

    Tampa Bay

    378

    360

    18

    82

    4.61

    4.39

    0.22

    .524

    43

    43

    0

    Texas

    355

    322

    33

    82

    4.33

    3.93

    0.40

    .549

    45

    48

    3

    Toronto

    373

    373

    0

    81

    4.60

    4.60

    0.00

    .500

    41

    40

    -1

     

    5366

    5312

    54

    610

    4.40

    4.35

             
                           

    NATIONAL LEAGUE

                         

    Team

    R

    OR

    R DIFF

    G

    R/G

    OR/G

    DIFF/G

    PW%

    EXP W

    ACT W

    W DIFF

    Arizona

    342

    335

    7

    81

    4.22

    4.14

    0.09

    .510

    41

    42

    1

    Atlanta

    346

    278

    68

    82

    4.22

    3.39

    0.83

    .608

    50

    48

    -2

    Chicago

    330

    340

    -10

    80

    4.13

    4.25

    -0.13

    .485

    39

    35

    -4

    Cincinnati

    355

    311

    44

    82

    4.33

    3.79

    0.54

    .566

    46

    46

    0

    Colorado

    390

    364

    26

    83

    4.70

    4.39

    0.31

    .534

    44

    41

    -3

    Los Angeles

    294

    340

    -46

    81

    3.63

    4.20

    -0.57

    .428

    35

    38

    3

    Miami

    259

    342

    -83

    80

    3.24

    4.28

    -1.04

    .364

    29

    29

    0

    Milwaukee

    317

    373

    -56

    80

    3.96

    4.66

    -0.70

    .419

    34

    32

    -2

    New York

    306

    355

    -49

    78

    3.92

    4.55

    -0.63

    .426

    33

    33

    0

    Philadelphia

    320

    366

    -46

    83

    3.86

    4.41

    -0.55

    .433

    36

    39

    3

    Pittsburgh

    320

    275

    45

    81

    3.95

    3.40

    0.56

    .575

    47

    51

    4

    San Diego

    338

    364

    -26

    82

    4.12

    4.44

    -0.32

    .463

    38

    40

    2

    San Francisco

    333

    354

    -21

    81

    4.11

    4.37

    -0.26

    .469

    38

    39

    1

    St. Louis

    401

    289

    112

    81

    4.95

    3.57

    1.38

    .658

    53

    49

    -4

    Washington

    295

    314

    -19

    81

    3.64

    3.88

    -0.23

    .469

    38

    41

    3

     

    4946

    5000

    -54

    608

    4.07

    4.11

             

     

     

    Orioles Notes:  The O’s more or less held serve in the run differential department during June, with a +5 mark for the month, while posting a slightly better-than-expected (given the RD) record of 16-12.  For the season, the Orioles are third in the league in R/G, just .01 behind second place Detroit, and 13th in the league in OR/G.  Through the first two months of the season, the Orioles allowed 4.67 runs per game to their opponents; in June, the mark was a slightly improved 4.46 OR/G.  At the end of May, the Orioles were scoring 5.09 runs per game; during June, that slipped significantly to 4.64 R/G. 

     

    AL East:  Let’s have some fun—we’ll take a close look at the Yankees.  New York was outscored by more runs (34) during June than any other team in the American League.   The long expected correction seems to be taking place.  The Yankees finished June with an 11-16 record and they have been—wait for it—the luckiest team in the AL, season to date, +4 win differential.  At -16 for the season, the Yankees are the only team in the East with a negative run differential for the season to date.  New York’s biggest problem, obviously, has been its offense.  Season-to-date the Yankees are 12th in the league in R/G, but they’re closer to 14th than they are to 11th.  And, the problem is getting worse.  No team in the AL had a lower R/G mark in June than the Yankees (3.26).  The Yankees entered June second in the league in runs allowed per game, but exit the month fourth.  That’s because, in June, the Yankees allowed a worse-than-league-average 4.52 runs per game to their opponents.

     

    As for the rest of the division, the Red Sox have the best run differential in the league.  Boston leads the league in runs per game after a huge offensive June (5.57 R/G during the month).  The Red Sox stand fourth in the league in runs allowed per game, on the strength of a so-so performance in June (4.39 OR/G).

     

    No team, in either league, had a better positive run differential in June than Toronto, which is no real surprise given the club’s long winning streak in June.  The Blue Jays outscored their opponents by more than a run-and-a-half last month.  Toronto is now solidly in the middle of the league in both scoring and opponents’ scoring.

     

    It was a mediocre month for the Rays.  The pitching was okay (in the division, only the red hot Jays were better), but the offense, which had been so productive through May, hit the skids.  Tampa Bay scored only 3.82 runs per game in June.

     

    AL Central:  Detroit continues to be a mystery; the team has the largest negative win differential (-5) in all of baseball.  The Tigers have the second best run differential in the American League, only a hiccup behind Boston, but are struggling mightily to hold off a far inferior Cleveland ball club for first place in the division.  Problems at the back end of the Detroit bullpen continue to bedevil the team; a club that’s second in offense and fifth in pitching/defense ought to be solidly atop its division. 

     

    The team with the best run differential in the division in June was the Kansas City Royals (+19 for the month).  This was done almost entirely on the strength of the performance of its pitching staff, which held opponents to 3.3 runs per game in June.  For the season, Kansas City is allowing fewer runs per game (3.85) than any other team in the league.  The Royals continue to be held back by their offense, which is scoring fewer than four runs per contest for the season.

     

    The Indians have the second best run differential in the division (+28) for the season, though more than half of that was acquired in their just-completed four-game series against a floundering divisional opponent (the White Sox). 

     

    As for that opponent, Chicago appears to be in freefall.  The White Sox just wrapped up an 8-19 month, and have the third worst run differential in the league, and the worst, by far, in the division for the season (-52).  Chicago’s pitching is more or less league average, but the team’s offense ranks 14th in the AL and a full-blown roster purge prior to the trading deadline is expected.

     

    The Twins continue to stumble along in mediocrity, six games below .500, with a modestly worse than average performance from its offense and its pitching staff.  Nothing that happened in June changed Minnesota’s trajectory.

     

    AL West:  Oakland’s June run differential (+26) was the best in the league outside of the East.  The A’s pitching has improved with each passing month and now stands third in the AL in OR/G.  The team’s offense has cooled off somewhat after a surprisingly torrid start to the season, but the A’s are still fifth in the league in R/G.  Oakland’s overall run differential is a strong third in the AL.

     

    Despite a .500 record (14-14) in June, the Rangers had a horrible month in the run differential department (-27); only two teams in the American League had worse RDs in June.  For the season, Texas ranks ninth in the league with a below average 4.33 R/G mark.  The Rangers are staying afloat on the strength of their pitching staff, which is allowing only 3.93 runs per game, second best in the league behind the Royals.

     

    The Angels finally seem to have gained some traction and are now on the RD plus side for the season.  The Los Angeles pitching staff has been the problem all year—the Angels are just a hiccup away from being 14th in the league in OR/G.  But the offense has started to heat up.  The Angels scored five runs per game in June, second in the league only to Boston, and the team is now sixth in the league in R/G (they were eighth heading into the month).

     

    The Mariners had almost as bad a run differential month (-32) as the Yankees; it was the second worst mark in the league.  In the AL, only Houston has been outscored by more runs to date this season than Seattle (-66).  What has to be depressing to Mariners fans is that, though the ballpark significantly depresses offensive output, the Mariners have allowed more runs per game (4.43) than the league average.  The hitting numbers are simply dismal—a league worst 3.62 runs per game.  The offense probably isn’t really this bad, but the pitching staff isn’t as “good” as it appears either.

     

    The Astros are, and continue to be, the worst team in the American League with a run differential (-112) that is, by far, the worst in all of baseball.  Houston is allowing 5.15 runs per game to its opponents; no other team in the majors is even as high as 4.7.  Meanwhile, the Astros are scoring 3.78 runs per game, 13th in the AL.  In fact, Houston’s -20 RD mark in June was its best monthly per game performance of the season, by a wide margin, so things may be improving…though the bar has been set very low in that regard.

     

    NL East:  The Braves are, hands down, the class of the division.  Atlanta is the only team in the East with a positive run differential (+68) and it just happens to be the second best mark in the entire league.  The Braves continued apace in June with the third best monthly RD in the NL (+19).  The Braves have achieved their season-to-date mark with solid if unspectacular offense (tied for fourth in the league in R/G) and exceptional pitching (best OR/G in all of baseball).

     

    The Nationals have been among baseball’s biggest disappointments this year.  The pitching (fifth in the league in OR/G) has been good but not great.  The offense has been awful, to the tune of 3.64 R/G, the 13th in the NL.

     

    The Phillies have among the largest negative run differentials (-46) in the league, and this is after a slightly positive June (+4).  Philadelphia is well below the league average in both R/G and OR/G.

     

    The Mets had the division’s worst June both in terms of record (11-16) and RD (-12) and are now the third worst team in year-to-date run differential (-49) in the National League.  New York’s offense has been roughly league average, but the pitching (4.69 OR/G) is ranked 14th in the league.

     

    The Marlins may have turned something of a corner.  After a horrid first two months, they had a (slightly) positive run differential in June (+3) to go along with a 15-10 record.  They still have the worst RD in the NL (-83), and by far the worst offense (3.24 R/G), but things at least appear to be trending in the right direction.

     

    NL Central:  The best division in the league by far includes the team with the best run differential in the league (also by far)—the St. Louis Cardinals.  The Cards, in fact, have the best RD in all of baseball at +112.  The team’s run differential for June (+40) was nearly double that of the second best team in the league…and yet St. Louis finished the month with an inexplicable 14-14 record.  The Cardinals lead the league in R/G and are third in OR/G.

     

    The Pirates ended June on a nine-game winning streak and with a 17-9 record and a solid—but not commensurate—+22 run differential.  The Pirates have a +4 WDIFF, the largest in the league.  They’ve played well (+45 RD, third best in the NL), just not as well as their record would imply.  Pittsburgh’s offense is a bit below average, actually, but the pitching is just a hair behind Atlanta’s for best-in-league honors.

     

    The Reds had a genuinely bad month of June, posting a -23 RD.  Despite that, they’re still +44 for the season, which is fourth best in the league.  The Reds offense really cratered in June; only the Giants scored fewer runs last month than Cincinnati.  The team is still well above average on both sides of the ball for the season to date.

     

    The Cubs actually entered June with a positive RD (+10), but exited in the red (-13) after a poor month that saw them tie the Diamondbacks for most runs allowed in June (130 in 27 games).  For the year, Chicago is still hovering around the middle of the league in both runs and runs allowed.

     

    The Brewers are a bad team, made worse by the loss of Ryan Braun for most of the month of June.  Milwaukee is dead last in the league in runs allowed, a bit below average in runs scored, and seemingly headed downward across the board.

     

    NL West:  This is probably baseball’s worst division, at least at the top.  The month of June ended with one team—the Rockies—with a positive run differential:  +1 for the 30-day period.  For the year, Colorado leads the division at +26 and, after accounting for the effect of Coors Field, is probably a bit better than average on the pitching front and about average offensively.  In raw terms, the Rockies rank second in the NL in R/G and 11th in OR/G. 

     

    The Diamondbacks, as mentioned above, tied the Cubs for most runs allowed in June and rank sixth year to date.  The 4.14 OR/G mark (year to date) is more than 1/3 of a run higher than it was at the end of May.  Arizona’s offense salvaged the month for the team; they ranked fifth in June in R/G and are fourth in the league year to date.

     

    The Padres held serve in June, with a 0 RD for the month, and remain -26 for the season.  San Diego ranks seventh in the league, year to date, in R/G, not bad at all when one accounts for pitcher-friendly Petco Park, but the pitching ranks a very disappointing 13th in the league.

     

    The Giants had the league’s worst record in June (10-17) and the team’s offensive struggles continued.  No team in the NL scored fewer runs in June (90) than San Francisco.  For the season the Giants are tenth in the league in runs allowed and eighth in runs scored and don’t seem to be gaining any real traction in either department. 

     

    The Dodgers, despite all their struggles this season (-46 RD), ended June just four games out of first place in the West.  The Los Angeles pitching has been mediocre (ranked seventh, and, at 4.20 OR/G, worse than the league average of 4.11), but the big problem has been the offense.  The Dodgers find themselves 14th in the NL in R/G, worse even than Washington and only ahead of Miami.


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