News and Articles
  • Oct
    01

    Run Differential: Final

    Written by Kerry Leibowitz

    (Note:  These results do not include the tie-breaking 163rd game between Tampa Bay and Texas.)

     

    AMERICAN LEAGUE

                         

    Team

    R

    OR

    R DIFF

    G

    R/G

    OR/G

    DIFF/G

    PW%

    EXP W

    ACT W

    W DIFF

    Baltimore

    745

    709

    36

    162

    4.60

    4.38

    0.22

    .525

    85

    85

    0

    Boston

    853

    656

    197

    162

    5.27

    4.05

    1.22

    .628

    102

    97

    -5

    Chicago

    598

    723

    -125

    162

    3.69

    4.46

    -0.77

    .406

    66

    63

    -3

    Cleveland

    745

    662

    83

    162

    4.60

    4.09

    0.51

    .559

    91

    92

    1

    Detroit

    796

    624

    172

    162

    4.91

    3.85

    1.06

    .619

    100

    93

    -7

    Houston

    610

    848

    -238

    162

    3.77

    5.23

    -1.47

    .341

    55

    51

    -4

    Kansas City

    648

    601

    47

    162

    4.00

    3.71

    0.29

    .538

    87

    86

    -1

    Los Angeles

    733

    737

    -4

    162

    4.52

    4.55

    -0.02

    .497

    81

    78

    -3

    Minnesota

    614

    788

    -174

    162

    3.79

    4.86

    -1.07

    .378

    61

    66

    5

    New York

    650

    671

    -21

    162

    4.01

    4.14

    -0.13

    .484

    78

    85

    7

    Oakland

    767

    625

    142

    162

    4.73

    3.86

    0.88

    .601

    97

    96

    -1

    Seattle

    624

    754

    -130

    162

    3.85

    4.65

    -0.80

    .406

    66

    71

    5

    Tampa Bay 

    695

    644

    51

    162

    4.29

    3.98

    0.31

    .538

    87

    91

    4

    Texas

    728

    631

    97

    162

    4.49

    3.90

    0.60

    .571

    93

    91

    -2

    Toronto

    712

    756

    -44

    162

    4.40

    4.67

    -0.27

    .470

    76

    74

    -2

     

    10518

    10429

    89

    1215

    4.33

    4.29

             
                           

    NATIONAL LEAGUE

                         

    Team

    R

    OR

    R DIFF

    G

    R/G

    OR/G

    DIFF/G

    PW%

    EXP W

    ACT W

    W DIFF

    Arizona

    685

    695

    -10

    162

    4.23

    4.29

    -0.06

    .493

    80

    81

    1

    Atlanta

    688

    548

    140

    162

    4.25

    3.38

    0.86

    .612

    99

    96

    -3

    Chicago

    602

    689

    -87

    162

    3.72

    4.25

    -0.54

    .433

    70

    66

    -4

    Cincinnati

    698

    589

    109

    162

    4.31

    3.64

    0.67

    .584

    95

    90

    -5

    Colorado

    706

    760

    -54

    162

    4.36

    4.69

    -0.33

    .463

    75

    74

    -1

    Los Angeles

    649

    582

    67

    162

    4.01

    3.59

    0.41

    .554

    90

    92

    2

    Miami

    513

    646

    -133

    162

    3.17

    3.99

    -0.82

    .387

    63

    62

    -1

    Milwaukee

    640

    687

    -47

    162

    3.95

    4.24

    -0.29

    .465

    75

    74

    -1

    New York

    619

    684

    -65

    162

    3.82

    4.22

    -0.40

    .450

    73

    74

    1

    Philadelphia

    610

    749

    -139

    162

    3.77

    4.62

    -0.86

    .399

    65

    73

    8

    Pittsburgh

    634

    577

    57

    162

    3.91

    3.56

    0.35

    .547

    89

    94

    5

    San Diego

    618

    700

    -82

    162

    3.81

    4.32

    -0.51

    .438

    71

    76

    5

    San Fran.

    629

    691

    -62

    162

    3.88

    4.27

    -0.38

    .453

    73

    76

    3

    St. Louis

    783

    596

    187

    162

    4.83

    3.68

    1.15

    .633

    103

    97

    -6

    Washington

    656

    626

    30

    162

    4.05

    3.86

    0.19

    .523

    85

    86

    1

     

    9730

    9819

    -89

    1215

    4.00

    4.04

             

     

     

    The Orioles 

    The team’s +36 run differential was the eighth best in the American League.  Baltimore finished tied for fourth in the league in runs scored per game and ninth in OR/G.  When adjusted for the effect of Camden Yards, the offense looks a bit worse and the pitching/defense appears somewhat better.  For the last seven years, OPCY has played as a hitter’s park pretty consistently. 

     

    Consider the multi-year AL park factors (through 2013), as reported by Baseball Reference:

     

    Team

    BF

    PF

    BAL

    105

    105

    BOS

    103

    102

    CLE

    93

    94

    CWS

    107

    107

    DET

    106

    105

    HOU

    99

    101

    KC

    102

    102

    LAA

    94

    94

    MIN

    100

    101

    NYY

    102

    101

    OAK

    94

    93

    SEA

    92

    92

    TB

    96

    95

    TEX

    104

    103

    TOR

    102

    102

     

    Oriole Park at Camden Yards has played as among the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the American League.  Only U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago and Comerica Park in Detroit have been better AL hitter’s parks than Camden Yards in the past three years.

     

    The Orioles’ win differential—the margin between the team’s actual and Pythagorean projected win totals—is zero.  Unlike last year when the Orioles won 11 more games than projected, this year the win total was spot on.  This year’s team’s run differential was incrementally—but significantly—better than last year, despite a substantially lower win total.  But it’s worth noting that, despite the poor one-run record of the 2013 Orioles (20-31), the team’s record was exactly what its run comparison would predict.  It’s difficult to make a cogent argument that this was an unlucky team.

     

    Regression to the Mean

    In the first half of the season—through the end of June—the Orioles scored 4.94 runs per game (rank: 3rd) and allowed 4.60 runs per game (13th).  In the second half of the season, those numbers were 4.24 R/G (7th) and 4.14 OR/G (8th).  Essentially, everything about the Orioles regressed to the mean in the second half of the season.  Scoring was down across the major leagues in the second half of the 2013 season, but in the AL the decline was only about 0.15 runs per team per game.  The Orioles’ delta—both for runs scored and allowed—was considerably larger than that.


    Comments/Questions?
    Visit the Orioles Hangout Message Board