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  • Jun
    29

    Hitting Prospect Reports Through 6/28

    Written by skanar

    The NYPL and GCL seasons have started, and I've only got a limited number of players to track. Partly this is due to a lack of position prospects and partly because I'm trying to keep the list short and the upper-minors guys are more interesting, but mostly because I don't know who is worth watching. Any suggestions? 

    Chance Sisco has really turned it on lately and he and Christian Walker are now clearly ahead of the rest of the Orioles' position player pack. Nobody else has hit especially well, though there has been life from Mike Ohlman. Mancini and Yastrzemski have been promoted (DEL->FRE) and Lucas Herbst went the other way. Josh Hart is just back from his injury, and Adrian Marin has been the biggest disappointment for me this season.

    (NB: The numbers after the ages are the minimum OPS and maximum K rate needed to maintain prospect status (according to my system) over a full season of at least 150 PAs. Following these are the three chances a prospect has, based on his OPS, to make the majors/be a success/be a star.)


    Gulf Coast

    3B Jomar Reyes. Age 17: >.540, <24%. Too few PA. Season: 29 PA, .231/.310/.269 (.580), 3 BB (10.3%), 6 K (20.7%). 

    Reyes is exciting because of his very young age, even for the GCL. The GCL season has just gotten started, and I'll be tracking him as it goes.


    Aberdeen

    C Jonah Heim. Age 19: >.575. Too few PA. Season: 27 PA, .154/.179/.269 (.448), 1 BB (3.7%), 2 K (7.4%)

    Heim had trouble offensively last year, but scouting reports on his defense were good.

    C Alex Murphy. Age 19: >.575. Too few PA. Season (A- only): 60 PA, .304/.339/.446 (.785), 4 BB (6.7%), 12 K (20.0%)

    Murphy is off to a pretty reasonable start.


    Delmarva

    C Chance Sisco. Age 19: no min/max. 83%/41%/23%. Season: 232 PA, .332/.404/.450 (.854), 21 BB (9.1%), 46 K (19.8%). Last 10: 44 PA, .432/.511/.514 (1.025), 4 K
    Sisco has exploded in the month of June. Overall, he's young for the Sally League and has a very good (though not dominant) season offensive line. The predictor likes him (it's tough to get a very high success chance in low-A, reflecting the uncertainty involved in players that far away from the majors), and it doesn't reflect position, so players at demanding defensive spots will be underestimated. Great first half from Sisco.

    3B Drew Dosch. Age 22: >.675, <28%. 24%/6%/3%. Season: 325 PA, .316/.386/.398 (.784), 31 BB (9.5%), 54 K (16.6%). Last 10: 47 PA, .375/.468/.375 (.843), 6 K
    Dosch has continued to hit well but for no power. A .082 ISO is worrisome. Overall, his line is OK, but you'd hope for better given his relatively old age for the Sally League. 

    CF Josh Hart. Age 19: no min/max. 31%/5%/1%. Season: 150 PA, .266/.301/.273 (.573), 7 BB (4.7%), 37 K (24.7%). Since 6/6: 3 GCL games
    Rehabbing with the GCL O's, I believe.

    OF Conor Bierfeldt. Age 23: >.850, <18%. Org player. Season: 243 PA, .207/.304/.392 (.695), 26 BB (10.7%), 58 K (23.9%). Last 10: 37 PA, .242/.342/.485 (.827), 4 K
    Bierfeldt has continued to hit better in June that his horrid start, but his overall line is still quite poor, and even if he hit at his June rate all season he'd fall below the prospect cutoff given his age.

    OF Lucas Herbst. Age 23: >.850, <18%. Too few PA. Season (A only): 57 PA, .236/.288/.273 (.561), 2 BB (3.5%), 9 K (15.8%).
    Herbst was demoted to Delmarva. His final A+ line is evaluated below. He's very far away from prospect status at this point, and I'm going to stop tracking him.

    1B Trey Mancini. Age 22: >.675, <28%. 24%/6%/3%. Season (A only): 282 PA, .317/.357/.422 (.779), 14 BB (4.9%), 52 K (18.4%).
    Mancini was promoted to Frederick and the line above is his final Sally League stats. Overall, Mancini hit well, but is only a marginal prospect due to age. I'm excited to see how he does against tougher competition.

    OF Mike Yastrzemski. Age 23: >.850, <18%. Org player (Ks). Season (A only): 277 PA, .306/.365/.554 (.919), 19 BB (6.9%), 64 K (23.1%). 
    Yastrzemski was also promoted. His final line at A is excellent, but his K rate is too high for a player his age. I've written more in detail about this elsewhere; here I'll just say that only 4 age-23 SAL players (out of 577) have gone on to major league success.


    Frederick

    C Wynston Sawyer. Age 22: >.620, <25%. Org player. Season: 164 PA, .199/.284/.295 (.579), 18 BB (11.0%), 27 K (16.4%). Since 6/6: injured
    Injured basically all of June. Two games since he's been back.

    SS Adrian Marin. Age 20: >.580, <27%. 46%/0%*/0%*. Season: 243 PA, .242/.267/.347 (.615), 7 BB (2.9%), 45 K (18.5%). Last 10: 41 PA, .195/.190/.268, 6 K
    Trending in the wrong direction, though still hitting for some power. OBP is especially worrisome.

    OF Glynn Davis. Age 22: >.620, <25%. 35%/9%/3%. Season: 312 PA, .288/.363/.395 (.758), 31 BB (9.9%), 58 K (18.6%). Last 10: 44 PA, .250/.386/.250 (.636), 7 K
    An OK first half for Davis but he's cooled off quite a bit from his scorching start. Numbers now much more inclined with what you'd expect from a B/C prospect. Still, a nice OBP, and if his CF defense is strong could be a defense-first outfielder at some point.

    OF Lucas Herbst. Age 23: >.700, <24%. Too few PA. Season (A+ only): 135 PA, .271/.319/.380 (.699), 6 BB (4.4%), 30 K (22.2%).
    Herbst didn't cross my PA threshold in his time in A+ ball, but he was just barely at the prospect cutoff. Now that he's been demoted, I think it's time to stop tracking him.

    1B Trey Mancini. Age 22: >.620, <25%. Too few PA. Season (A+ only): 44 PA, .262/.295/.476 (.772), 2 BB (4.5%), 5 K (11.4%). 
    Off to an OK start at the higher league. Still hitting for power but hasn't walked much. Of course the sample size is quite small.

    OF Mike Yastrzemski. Age 23: >.700, <24%. Too few PA. Season (A+ only): 37 PA, .235/.293/.235 (.528), 3 BB (8.1%), 7 K (18.9%). 
    Yaz Jr. has struggled since his promotion. SSS, obviously. Let's see how he does as he adjusts to the tougher pitchers.


    Bowie

    C Michael Ohlman. Age 23: >.620, <24%. 34%/5%/0%*. Season: 255 PA, .246/.326/.342 (.668), 27 BB (10.6%), 53 K (20.8%). Last 10: 40 PA, .297/.350/.405 (.755), 7 K
    Ohlman has been hitting better but not spectacularly and his season line is creeping up. He needs to continue to hit better.

    SS Garabez Rosa. Age 24: >.620, <24%. 33%/6%/1%. Season: 252 PA, .275/.289/.413 (.702), 5 BB (2.0%), 54 K (21.4%). Last 10: 38 PA, .237/.231/.447 (.678), 13 K
    Rosa continues to hit for power, at least for a SS, but his season line continues to drop. Predictor gives his a pretty small chance of making a real contribution, but he could be a utility guy at some point.

    1B Christian Walker. Age 23: >.620, <24%. 82%/44%/18%. Season: 342 PA, .316/.375/.550 (.924), 29 BB (8.5%), 68 K (19.9%). Last 10: 40 PA, .395/.415/.658 (1.073), 5 K
    Walker is back to crushing it. Hoping he can keep that up! Even added a stolen base this week.

    RF Dariel Alvarez. Age 25: >.800, <18%. 53%/11%/4%**. Season: 320 PA, .314/.330/.497 (.827), 8 BB (2.5%), 31 K (9.7%). Last 10: 40 PA, .250/.250/.250
    Not much from Alvarez lately and his season line has dropped into the good (as opposed to great) range.


    Norfolk

    OF Henry Urrutia. Age 27: past prospect age. Too few PA. Season: 86 PA, .220/.250/.293 (.543), 4 BB (4.7%), 23 K (26.7%). Since 5/2: DNP
    Injured.


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