• Apr

    Matusz clock ticking for Bergesen and Tillman

    Brian Matusz is moving closer to a mid-May return with the Baltimore Orioles. When the occurs, Brad Bergesen or Chris Tillman figures to be sent back to AAA Norfolk, or possibly to the back of the O’s bullpen.

    Which one should leave the rotation?

    Tillman will start tonight, for the first time since 4/18 against the Twins. In his four previous starts he has had two effective outings, and two poor outings.

    Cumulatively he is 0-2, with a 6.16 era. In his 19 innings of work, he has allowed 21 hits, 2 hr’s, 6 bb’s, with 16 k’s. His OPS against is .741, and his G/F ratio is 0.74.

    Pitch F/X Tillman: http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pitcher/501957/

    There have been some positive signs from Tillman:
    His K/9 ratio has increased from 5.20 last year, to 7.58.
    His BB/9 has decreased from 5.20 last year, to 2.84 this year.
    His HR/9 has decreased from 1.51 to 0.95.
    His line-drive rate has decreased from 21.6% to 13.1%.
    His tERA is 3.21.

    Tillman turned 23 on April 15th.
    AAA ’09-’10 combined: 19-13, 3.07 era, 217 ip, 205 hits, 74 er, 15 hr, 56 bb’s, 193 k’s
    MLB ’09-’10 combined: 4-10, 5.63 era, 118 ip, 128 hits, 74 er, 24 hr, 55 bb’s, 70 k’s
    Last 5 AAA starts 2010: 3-0, 2.17 era, 29 innings, 29 hits, 7 er, 1 hr, 6 walks, with 25 k’s.
    Last 5 MLB starts (Sept/Oct) 2010: 1-1, 4.15 era, 28.2 innings, 17 hits, 13 er, 6 hr, 18 walks, 19 k’s.

    Bergesen is coming off a competitive outing against Boston.

    Cumulatively he is 0-3, with a 4.76 era. In his 22.2 innings of work, he has allowed 25 hits, 4 hr’s, 6 bb’s, with 16 k’s. His OPS against is .832, and his G/F ratio is 0.53.

    Pitch F/X Bergesen: http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pitcher/448269/   

    Bergesen has increased his First Strike % to 71.4% vs. 63.4% last year.
    His K/9 ratio has increased to 6.35% vs. 4.29% last year.

    Bergesen turns 26 in September.
    2010 MLB: 8-12, 4.98 era, 170 ip, 193 hits, 94 er, 26 hr, 51 bb’s, 81 k’s
    2009 MLB: 7-5, 3.43 era, 123.1 ip, 126 hits, 47 er, 11 hr, 32 bb’s, 65 k’s

    We will see what each does over their next 3 or 4 starts, but my vote will likely remain the same. To me, the ideal scenario would be Tillman remaining in the rotation, but Bergesen staying with the team out of the bullpen. I think there is an opportunity to provide Bergesen with plenty of innings in relief, and think he would improve the team in that capacity.

    My best guess of what will happen is that Bergesen will turn in several relatively effective starts, and remain in the rotation, with Tillman being sent back to Norfolk. My guess is that the O’s will decide that if Bergesen is out-pitching Tillman in the rotation, they will want Tillman starting every 5th day at the AAA level.

    Watching them compete against each other the next few weeks will be interesting.

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Michael Williams

Lifelong. Down by the river.