• May
    07

    Will Arrieta match or exceed my projections?

    Arrieta is currently 4-1, with a 4.35 era. In 39.1 ip, he has allowed 34 hits, 19 er, 5 homers, 15 bb's, with 33 k's.

    Over 32 starts, that projects out to: 18-5, 4.35 era, 179 ip, 155 hits, 87 er, 23 hr's, 69 bb's, 151 k's.

    Swinging Strike Rate 2010: 5.7%
    Swinging Strike Rate 2011: 7.3%
    MLB Avg 2010 & 2011: 8.5%

    Outside Swing % 2010: 29%
    Outside Swing % 2011: 21.2%
    MLB Avg 2010: 29.3%
    MLB Avg 2011: 28.2%

    Outside Contact rate % 2010: 76.3%
    Outside Contact rate % 2011: 66.1%
    MLB Avg 2010: 66.5%
    MLB Avg 2011: 66.6%

    Z-Contact % 2010: 92.1%
    Z-Contact % 2011: 87.8%
    MLB Avg 2010: 88.1%
    MLB Avg 2011: 87.8%

    First Pitch Strike % 2010: 54.1%
    First Pitch Strike % 2011: 57.9%
    MLB Avg 2010: 58.8%
    MLB Avg 2011: 59%

    Prior to the start of the year, I projected Arrieta to post the following 2011 numbers: 13-10, 3.99 era, 185 innings, 180 hits, 82 er, 18 homers, 82 walks, 120 k’s.

    I said at the time, "It might be a bit overly optimistic, but I believe it is within reason. I would not get fixed on the era, as that is basically irrelevant. If he gives those same 185 ip I projected and allows 95 er (4.62 era) he will still be effective. What the O’s need most out of Arrieta is for him to start every 5th day and provide consistent innings. I greatly respect ESPN’s Keith Law, but I disagree with Law’s contention that Arrieta will never be more than a 3rd starter. I think you will be able to make a more accurate determination of Arrieta’s ceiling after a full year of starting in the bigs in 2011."

    In terms of walks and k's, Arrieta is exceeding the projections I had for him. Where do you see his numbers ending up?

    With the confidence most of us have in Matusz, and Britton; do you agree with me that Arrieta coming on is huge for the O's long-term prospects?


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