• Jun
    26

    Looking further at Matusz's velocity

    The best Brian Matusz has ever looked in a Baltimore Orioles uniform was his last 10 starts of 2010. (August through October). During those 10 starts, Matusz was 7-1, with a 1.88 era. In those 72 innings of work, Matusz allowed 48 hits, 5 homers, 16 walks, with 52 k's.

    It gave O's fans a lot of of confidence in Matusz, and helped many of us forget that during two seperate Months of 2010 (May and July), the lefty had at-least 5 starts with Monthly era's over 7.50.

    If we go back to the idea that the August through October stretch was as good as he has ever looked - we should use his velocity there as a baseline for expectations going forward.

    2010 Last 10 Starts:

    Aug 4th 2010
    33 4 seam fastballs, 89.2 mph
    20 2 seam fastballs, 89.2 mph

    Aug 9th 2010
    41 4 seam fastballs, 89 mph
    13 2 seam fastballs, 88.9 mph

    Aug 14th 2010
    35 4 seam fastballs, 89.2 mph
    11 2 seam fastballs, 88.7 mph

    Aug 19th 2010
    40 4 seam fastballs, 89.6 mph
    17 2 seasm fastballs, 89.6 mph

    Aug 25th Not Shown

    Aug 31st 2010
    48 4 seam fastballs, 89 mph
    16 2 seam fastballs, 88.6 mph

    Sept 6th 2010
    59 4 seam fastballs, 88.4 mph
    7 2 seam fastballs, 88 mph

    Sept 13th 2010
    7 4 seam fastballs, 89.7 mph
    8 2 seam fastballs, 89.5 mph

    Sept 20th 2010
    50 4 seam fastballs, 90.2 mph
    7 2 seam fastballs, 90 mph

    Sept 27th, 2010
    39 4 seam fastballs, 89.9 mph
    14 2 seam fastballs, 90.1 mph

    Oct 2nd, 2010
    42 4 seam fastballs, 89.8 mph
    15 2 seam fastballs, 89.5 mph

    = Average 4 seamer was 89.4, Average 2 seamer was 89.2

    2011 Starts:

    June 1st:
    38 4 seam fastballs, avg 87mph
    5 2 seam fastballs, avg 86.9 mph

    June 6th:
    21 4 seam fastballs, avg 86.7 mph
    2 2 seam fastballs, avg 87.1 mph

    June 12th:
    20 4 seam fastballs, 86.9 mph
    2 2 seam fastballs, 86.6 mph

    June 18th:
    50 4 seam fastballs, 87.6 mph
    6 2 seam fastballs, 87.3 mph

    June 25th:
    32 4 seam fastballs, 87.6 mph
    1 2 seam fastballs, 86.6 mph

    = Average 4 seamer was 87.3, Average 2 seamer was 87

    I agree with those that point to the drop from 89.4 to 87.3 and say that it points to something. I do not agree that it definitively points to injury. I think the bigger issues with Matusz right now are location, pitch selection, and endurance.

    It is a poor stretch of games for Matusz, and we all wanted to see more from him immediately after coming off the DL. As long as he is structurally sound (and Matusz says that he believes he is), I'm sure he will figure it out.


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