• Aug
    20

    Kerry Leibowitz - The land of Missed Opportunities

    The Land of Missed Opportunities

     

    One phrase describes the play of the Orioles thus far this August:  missed opportunities.  It’s a double (or perhaps triple) entendre, because there are multiple ways that the O’s have fulfilled this particular prophecy in the three-plus weeks of this month, but perhaps it’s driven home most emphatically by a glance at their game-by-game performance, revealed in the chart below.

     

    ORIOLES PERFORMANCE: AUGUST, 2013

     

    Date

    Opp.

    R

    OR

    1-Aug

    HOU

    6

    3

    2-Aug

    SEA

    11

    8

    3-Aug

    SEA

    4

    8

    4-Aug

    SEA

    2

    3

    6-Aug

    @SD

    4

    1

    7-Aug

    @SD

    10

    3

    9-Aug

    @SF

    5

    2

    10-Aug

    @SF

    2

    3

    11-Aug

    @SF

    10

    2

    12-Aug

    @ARI

    6

    7

    13-Aug

    @ARI

    3

    4

    14-Aug

    @ARI

    4

    5

    16-Aug

    COL

    3

    6

    17-Aug

    COL

    8

    4

    18-Aug

    COL

    7

    2

    19-Aug

    TB

    3

    4

     

    TOT

    88

    65

     

    AVG

    5.50

    4.06

     

    A quick glance at the bottom of the table shows a potential embarrassment of riches.  A three-week stretch where the Orioles outscore their opponents by an average of nearly 1-1/2 runs per game?  Where they score runs at a rate far beyond the league average and allow them at a rate well below?  Yes, please.  This is essentially the kind of runs/opponents runs performance that I think most of us hoped for back in May when we contemplated a revised and healthy starting rotation.

     

    And yet…

     

    Here’s a W-L summary of this 16-game stretch:

     

     

    Record

    Pyth. Proj.

    10.4-5.6

    Overall

    8-8

    1-Run

    0-6

    2-Run

    0-0

    3+

    8-2

     

    As you can see, the Orioles are dominating games decided by at least three runs, but have been an utter disaster in tight contests, losing all six of their one-run games during this period of time. 

     

    A team falling two or three wins short of projections over a stretch roughly equivalent to 1/10 of the season isn’t a shocking occurrence; things like this happen in baseball all the time.  But it’s all but impossible to examine the above and not think of what could have been had the Orioles posted a won-loss record simply even with expectations since August 1.


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