• Sep

    Skanar: Hitting Report Though the End of the Season

    The Orioles' minor league teams have all completed their seasons, with the exception of the Ironbirds, who have two more games.

    I'm listing the prospect status of each player using the quick-and-dirty classifier in my really long post earlier this month. A player can be in one of three categories: UNDETERMINED (means <150 PAs, too small a sample), PROSPECT (~10-15% chance of major league success, on average), or NONPROSPECT (~0.5% chance of major league success on average). Determinations are made based on this year only, for now.

    The big success story this year is Michael Ohlman. Christian Walker had a strong positive year as well. Schoop maintained his status, but didn't improve much, as did Glynn Davis. It's too early to tell much about the new draftees. Trades have greatly weakened the hitting side of the Orioles' farm system. My current ranking for the position players (subject to change as I work on the statistical projector) is:

    1. Jon Schoop
    2. Michael Ohlman
    3. Adrian Marin
    4. Chance Sisco
    5. Christian Walker
    6. Josh Hart
    7. Glynn Davis
    8. Trey Mancini
    9. Mike Yastrzemski
    10. Alex Murphy
    11. Jonah Heim

    Not a prospect: Hector Veloz
    Don't know: Dariel Alvarez, Henry Urrutia

    At some point during the offseason, I'll go over the full rosters to check for players I might have missed on this list. Connor Bierfeldt and Lucas Herbst are probably names that will get some attention, but beyond that, there aren't too many other position players.

    Gulf Coast
    C Chance Sisco, age 18. Season: 114 PA, .371/.475/.464 (.938) 17 BB (14.9%), 21 K (18.4%). Since 8/25: 13 PA, .364/.462/.364, 5 K. Status: UNDETERMINED
    With less than 150 PAs on the season, I can't make a statistical prediction about Sisco. But he's had a great year, and I'm excited to see what he does next season, hopefully at Delmarva.

    C Jonah Heim, age 18. Season: 91 PA, .185/.275/.247 (.522) 10 BB (11.0%), 13 K (14.3%). Since 8/25: 9 PA, .222/.222/.222, 1 K. Status: UNDETERMINED
    Heim concluded his season with a very weak hitting line, in too few PAs to make a determination. Even if he repeats at the GCL next season, he'll have a chance to establish prospect status for me; 19 year olds have a moderate, but not especially high, bar to cross.

    C Alex Murphy, age 18. Season: 103 PA, .231/.330/.363 (.693) 12 BB (11.7%), 16 K (15.5%). Since 8/25: 13 PA, .167/.231/.250, 3 K. Status: UNDETERMINED
    In the fairy tale trio of catchers drafted this season, Murphy is the one Goldilocks would prefer: he's in between the hot Sisco and the cold Heim. As with the others, limited playing time prevents a status from being determined.

    OF Josh Hart, age 18. Season: 136 PA, .228/.312/.301 (.612) 13 BB (9.6%), 23 K (16.9%). Since 8/25: missing. Status: UNDETERMINED
    Not a great showing from Hart, but not terrible either. The sample size is small. I'll wait to see what Hart does next season.

    1B Trey Mancini, age 21. Season: 273 PA, .324/.379/.447 (.826) 20 BB (7.3%), 43 K (15.8%). Since 8/25: 34 PA, .258/.324/.323, 6 K. Status: PROSPECT
    Mancini isn't too old for the NYPL, and he hit well enough to cross the prospect threshold. Unfortunately, the scouts aren't high on his defensive value, and the NYPL has a relatively low success rate, compared to the other leagues. Hopefully, he hits well at Frederick next season.

    3B Hector Veloz, age 19. Season: 219 PA, .213/.277/.332 (.608) 17 BB (7.8%), 70 K (32.0%). Since 8/25: 2-for-6, 3 Ks. Status: NONPROSPECT
    Strikeouts are the killer for Veloz. No player who has struck out over 28% of the time in the NYPL has gone on to be a successful major leaguer. Despite his youth, he gets relegated to longshot status.

    OF Mike Yastrzemski, age 22. Season: 227 PA, .276/.365/.424 (.788) 24 BB (10.6%), 43 K (18.9%). Since 8/25: 36 PA, .265/.306/.441, 6 K. Status: PROSPECT
    Despite cooling off dramatically, Yaz has hit well enough to be a prospect. He benefits from the relative unpredictability of the NYPL - were he to put up the same batting line next season at Delmarva, he would not be a prospect. Hopefully, he'll be in Frederick, though.

    SS Adrian Marin, age 19. Season: 411 PA, .265/.311/.356 (.667) 23 BB (5.6%), 90 K (21.9%). Since 8/25: 21 PA, .143/.143/.190, 4 K. Status: PROSPECT
    Marin ended the season poorly. But he's so young for the Sally League that there was no limit on how poorly he could perform - all 19 yo SAL players are ok prospects. Coupled with the solid reports on his defense and potential, Marin seems like a very solid player.

    C Michael Ohlman, age 22. Season: 417 PA, .313/.410/.524 (.934) 56 BB (13.4%), 93 K (22.3%). Since 8/25: 25 PA, .391/.440/.565, 6 K. Status: PROSPECT
    Ohlman ended his season strong. His age is middle-of-the-pack for Carolina League prospects, and he hit spectacularly. The Ks are high enough to be a concern, but he would have had to strike out 25% of the time or more to miss prospect status.

    CF Glynn Davis, age 21. Season: 407 PA, .234/.316/.313 (.629) 43 BB (10.6%), 74 K (18.2%). Since 8/25: 36 PA, .313/.389/.375, 3 K. Status: PROSPECT
    Davis rounded out his excellent August with another good week. In fact, he hit well enough that, coupled with his young age/league, he has maintained prospect status.

    1B Christian Walker, age 22. Season (AA only): 68 PA, .242/.319/.323 (.641) 6 BB (8.8%), 10 K (14.7%). Since 8/18: Did not play. Status: PROSPECT, based on A+ numbers (.822 OPS, 232 PAs, 17.7% K%)

    SS Jonathan Schoop, age 21. Season (AAA only): 283 PA .256/.301/.396 (.697) 13 BB (4.6%), 55 K (19.4%) Since 8/25: 31 PA, .300/.323/.433, 5 K. Status: UNDETERMINED
    I don't have stats for AAA. Schoop's final line isn't great, but it's acceptable for AAA for someone as young as Schoop, especially a middle infielder. Of note is Schoop's final split: .564 OPS at home, .792 OPS on the road; most of which came from a power difference: .286 SLG at home, .475 SLG on the road.

    OF Henry Urrutia, age 26. Season (AAA only): 122 PA, .316/.358/.430 (.788) 8 BB (6.6%), 15 K (12.3%). Since 8/25: 31 PA, .207/.258/.310, 5 K.
    Poor week from Urrutia, bringing his AAA line down substantially.

    Removed from list: Xavier Avery (traded).

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