HHP: Chris Davis and Sustainability
Obviously 1 months' sample size is somewhat difficult to make a serious judgement. However, as noted here, many stats do stabilize quickly enough that we can make some snap judgments after a month.
In terms of his power production, his HR/FB rate is not terribly out of line with last season; last season it was 25%, this season it's 31%. That's fairly astounding, but not unheard of; Barry Bonds from 2002 to the end of his career had a 25.1% HR/FB rate. Furthermore, per the link above, HR/FB stabilizes within 100 PA. We all know that Chris Davis is unusually strong, so while his HR/FB rate might go down a little, chances are it's going to stay very high.
The other component of power production is GB%, LD%, and FB%. While GB% and LD% stabilize within 2 weeks, FB% does not, largely due to IFFB% taking 3 months or so to stabilize. This doesn't entirely make sense to me, because I'm not sure where FBs would go, but since Davis' IFFB% is currently 0%, you have to believe that this will take a chunk out of his HR/FB rate eventually. The net result of this is most likely going to be that his HR/FB rate will regress to around that 25% rate.
Finally, an area where Davis has made major improvements is in his BB% and his K%. Both of these stats stabilize within 2 weeks, and both are tremendously better than last season. His BB% has more than doubled, from 6.6% to 13.3%. His K% has went from 30.1% to 23.8%. If this is truly his talent level, then the result will be a siginificant number of additional batted balls that have the potential to leave the ballpark.
The improvements in K% and BB% also show up in his approach stats; his O-swing rate is down from 39.8% to 31.0%, his contact rate is up from 71.8% to 75%, and his SwStr% is down from 15.5% to 11.0%.
Now, despite all these improvements, Davis has clearly been getting a bit "lucky" in some aspects. I alluded to the zero IFFB already; in addition to this, his BA on liners and in-play flyballs is astronomically high. As a result, he's due for significant regression in his batting average, and by extension, his slugging percentage. His current OPS is 1.191; a more realistic number is probably "only" around .950.
So, to summarize my wall of text, it's very easy to see a spike in numbers and wonder if it's just the luck of the draw; maybe this is like Adam Jones at the beginning of last season, where most of his peripheral numbers remained the same as the previous season, but his output spiked. With Davis, I don't think this is entirely the case. To be fair, he has gotten a bit lucky with balls in play, so the chances that he's going to hit 1.100+ all season are pretty slim. However, unless he completely loses it, it seems that there's a good chance that he has truly turned the corner and he can maintain a high level of production going forward.
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