• May
    01

    Kerry Leibowitz - Run Differential: Through April


    by Kerry Leibowitz

     

    Run Differential:  End of April

     

    The first month of the season is in the books, so it’s time to take a quick peek at the run differential situation around the majors. It’s still quite early in the year, so take the numbers below with a grain of salt; we’re still at the point where a timely blow out win (or loss) can introduce a fair amount of noise into the results.

     

    That having been said…

     

    COMPLETE THROUGH GAMES OF APRIL 30

     

    AL

                         

    Team

    R

    OR

    R DIFF

    G

    R/G

    OR/G

    DIFF/G

    PW%

    EXP W

    ACT W

    W DIFF

    BAL

    138

    112

    26

    27

    5.11

    4.15

    0.96

    .603

    16

    16

    0

    BOS

    135

    97

    38

    26

    5.19

    3.73

    1.46

    .660

    17

    18

    1

    CWS

    89

    106

    -17

    25

    3.56

    4.24

    -0.68

    .413

    10

    10

    0

    CLE

    120

    109

    11

    24

    5.00

    4.54

    0.46

    .548

    13

    11

    -2

    DET

    125

    98

    27

    25

    5.00

    3.92

    1.08

    .619

    15

    15

    0

    HOU

    111

    156

    -45

    27

    4.11

    5.78

    -1.67

    .336

    9

    8

    -1

    KC

    104

    90

    14

    24

    4.33

    3.75

    0.58

    .572

    14

    14

    0

    LAA

    111

    139

    -28

    26

    4.27

    5.35

    -1.08

    .389

    10

    9

    -1

    MIN

    92

    99

    -7

    23

    4.00

    4.30

    -0.30

    .463

    11

    11

    0

    NYY

    120

    110

    10

    26

    4.62

    4.23

    0.38

    .543

    14

    16

    2

    OAK

    158

    137

    21

    28

    5.64

    4.89

    0.75

    .571

    16

    16

    0

    SEA

    95

    128

    -33

    29

    3.28

    4.41

    -1.14

    .355

    10

    12

    2

    TB

    105

    105

    0

    26

    4.04

    4.04

    0.00

    .500

    13

    12

    -1

    TEX

    118

    86

    32

    26

    4.54

    3.31

    1.23

    .653

    17

    17

    0

    TOR

    104

    137

    -33

    27

    3.85

    5.07

    -1.22

    .366

    10

    10

    0

     

    1725

    1709

    16

    195

    4.43

    4.39

             
                           

    NL

                         

    Team

    R

    OR

    R DIFF

    G

    R/G

    OR/G

    DIFF/G

    PW%

    EXP W

    ACT W

    W DIFF

    ARI

    115

    99

    16

    27

    4.26

    3.67

    0.59

    .574

    16

    15

    -1

    ATL

    114

    83

    31

    26

    4.38

    3.19

    1.19

    .654

    17

    17

    0

    CHC

    92

    111

    -19

    26

    3.54

    4.27

    -0.73

    .407

    11

    10

    -1

    CIN

    126

    102

    24

    28

    4.50

    3.64

    0.86

    .604

    17

    15

    -2

    COL

    141

    116

    25

    27

    5.22

    4.30

    0.93

    .596

    16

    16

    0

    LAD

    88

    108

    -20

    26

    3.38

    4.15

    -0.77

    .399

    10

    13

    3

    MIA

    73

    117

    -44

    27

    2.70

    4.33

    -1.63

    .280

    8

    8

    0

    MIL

    118

    113

    5

    25

    4.72

    4.52

    0.20

    .522

    13

    14

    1

    NYM

    119

    118

    1

    25

    4.76

    4.72

    0.04

    .504

    13

    10

    -3

    PHI

    100

    122

    -22

    27

    3.70

    4.52

    -0.81

    .402

    11

    12

    1

    PIT

    110

    110

    0

    27

    4.07

    4.07

    0.00

    .500

    14

    15

    1

    SD

    101

    123

    -22

    26

    3.88

    4.73

    -0.85

    .403

    10

    10

    0

    SF

    115

    111

    4

    27

    4.26

    4.11

    0.15

    .518

    14

    15

    1

    STL

    117

    93

    24

    26

    4.50

    3.58

    0.92

    .613

    16

    15

    -1

    WAS

    96

    115

    -19

    27

    3.56

    4.26

    -0.70

    .411

    11

    13

    2

     

    1625

    1641

    -16

    199

    4.09

    4.13

             

     

     

    Orioles Notes

    No “lucky” play so far this year; the Orioles have won exactly as many games as the Pythagorean Theorem projects.  Right now, the O’s are a more-than-solid third in the American League in runs per game, and fourth in all of baseball.  Baltimore ranks sixth in the AL in OR/G.  When you’re better than league average on both sides of the runs equation, you’re doing something right; only Boston and Texas have better run differentials than the Orioles to date.

     

    American League Notes

    There are no particularly noteworthy run differentials to consider; every club in the league at present is within two wins of its expected total.

     

    In the East, Boston has the best run differential in all of baseball thus far, ranking second in the AL in both runs and runs allowed.  The Yankees are a modest +10 in run differential through the team’s first 26 games.  It will be interesting to see how long New York is able to overcome a plethora of injuries to members of the would-be starting lineup.  Tampa Bay has been beak even in runs.  The Rays are fourth in the league in runs allowed but are struggling to score, as expected.  Toronto has been, arguably, the biggest disappointment in baseball this year, with second worst run differential per game in the AL.

     

    In the Central, Detroit has been the best team, as anticipated, and holds the third best run differential per game in the league, but Kansas City and Cleveland have been solid (both are in double digits on the positive side of the run differential equation) and the Twins haven’t been as bad as expected (just -7 in RD to date).  The White Sox are scuffling; only four AL teams have worse RDIFF/G marks than Chicago.

     

    Out West, the A’s are baseball’s top scoring club, nearly a half-run per game better than the #2 team (Colorado).  Oakland’s Achilles Heel has been its pitching; the A’s are a half-run per game worse than the league average.  Texas has the second best RDIFF/G in the AL, on the strength of average offense and the best OR/G mark in the league.  The Angels are pushing the Jays for the mantle of most disappointing team.  Los Angeles holds the second worst OR/G mark in the league and below average offense to boot.  Seattle and Houston are just plain bad, ranking 13th and 15th respectively in the AL in RDIFF/G.  The Mariners have the worst offense in the league and the Astros have the worst pitching.  Houston currently holds baseball’s worst RDFF/G.

     

    National League Notes

    In the East, it’s worth noting that the Mets are underachieving by three wins—that’s quite a bit at this point in the season, though it doesn’t necessarily portend an epic underperformance over the course of the entire year.  New York’s strength has been its offense (second in the NL).   Atlanta has been the top team in the National League, on the strength of solid offense and the best pitching/defense in the circuit.  Washington is as big a disappointment as any team in the league; the team has actually performed worse than its record.  The Pythagorean Theorem implies that the Nationals should have a record of 11-16 right now.  Philadelphia’s downward spiral of the past couple of seasons continues.  The Phillies are tied for the second worst run differential in the league.  The Marlins are awful, as expected and ended April on pace to score an absurd 437 runs for the entire 162-game season.

     

    In the Central, the Reds and Cardinals are going toe-to-toe, as expected, with almost identical R/G and OR/G numbers through April.  Milwaukee’s offense has kept the team in the race; ditto Pittsburgh’s pitching.  The Cubs are bringing up the rear, as expected, with Chicago’s offense being the main culprit.

     

    Out West, the surprising Rockies haven’t been lucky at all and are hanging around the middle of the league in runs allowed, despite the Coors Field effect.  In the NL, only the Braves have a better RDIFF/G than Colorado.  Arizona remains right behind the Rockies, largely due to the Diamondbacks’ pitching (fourth best in the league in OR/G).  The Giants have been a bit disappointing in the OR/G department, with a roughly league-average performance.  The Dodgers have been three games to the lucky side of things and have had a terrible time scoring runs (ranking second worst in the NL).  Keep an eye on Los Angeles going forward.  The Padres are a lousy club playing lousy ball, but take particular note of the pitching.  San Diego holds the worst OR/G mark in the league, despite playing its home games at pitcher friendly Petco Park.


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