• Mar

    HHP: Poster skanar looks at Eduardo Rodriguez

    by skanar

    On the question of Rodriguez in the bigger picture, he's always been a guy without great scouting reports who had good results for his age. He's outperformed his age/level for 3 straight years.

    At 18, he pitched in the GCL. Lots of Ks and a decent but not great walk rate. 2.22 ERA thanks to very few hits and almost no HRs.

    Age 19 was Delmarva. Results were good for his age but only OK overall. 3.70 ERA, K rate was way down (walk rate down too, which was good). Hit rate way up, but still very few HRs.

    At 20 was last season, split between Frederick and Bowie. K rate came up to a more reasonable level, walks up a bit too. Fewer hits but significantly more HRs (though the overall rate is still very good). 3.41 ERA overall. Notably, both his K and BB rate were much higher at Bowie than at Frederick.

    Rodriguez is hard to pigeonhole: he's neither a flamethrower with little control nor a soft-tossing lefty who can't strike guys out. He's limited homers at every level but they've gotten worse as he's moved up the minors. He's always been young for his league and posted good results everywhere.

    I'm still working on the preliminary stats for the pitching side of my prospect project, but I have some preliminary numbers for the GCL and SAL. 

    Pitchers who were 18 in the GCL became solid MLB players 10.5% of the time (ignoring minor league performance) which is quite good within the context - pitchers have been harder to predict than hitters, so far. 

    Pitchers who were 19 in the SAL became solid MLB players about 40% of the time - that's excellent. 

    Potential success story comparables for Rodriguez include Phil Hughes and Jonathan Broxton. Both had gaudier K numbers but were similarly good at limiting homers and similarly OK but not great at limiting walks. Rodriguez is behind where both were as prospects but not that far behind. Rodriguez is also left-handed. Perhaps an even more interesting comp is Jon Lester, who's also lefthanded. Here's some statline comparisons

    Lester, age 19, SAL: 106 IP, 3.65 ERA, 6.0 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9, 1.377 WHIP
    Rodriguez age 19, SAL: 107 IP, 3.70 ERA, 6.1 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 0.3 HR/9, 1.243 WHIP

    Lester, age 20, A+: 90.1 IP, 4.28 ERA, 9.7 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 0.2 HR/9, 1.317 WHIP
    Rodriguez, age 20, A+/AA: 145 IP, 3.41 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9, 1.241 WHIP

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