If the Os sign picks 6-10 for $10k each, that frees up near $800k for over slot signings within our bonus pool. The Os can pay a tax and go 5% above their pool – which would allow for another $342k. In total combining both assumptions, the Os could go approx. $1.137M above slot on their first six picks and their picks past round 10. It should be noted that the Os have rarely, if ever, dipped into the extra 5% allocation though we may have had offers to prospects that were not accepted that did dip into these $.
The two main HS guys after round 10 who might entertain overslot $ are Logan Allen (consensus top 200 prospect) and Greg Jones (consensus top 100 draft prospect, who was tied to the Os in round 2 per some reports).
The main guys who may be due for over slot signings in our first 10 picks are IMO – the first rounder, Hall, who was rated around 12-14 entering the draft and who was draft 21st overall. The difference in slot $ is about $1M. If the Os offered $ associated with the 17th/18th overall picks, that would be about $3.25M or so, about $300k above slot. Our scouting director was quoted as saying he did not expect our fourth rounder Conlon to be “there” – likely implying in that round – and he could require some over slot $. Of course, there may be some other over slot guys after round 10 besides just Allen and Jones.
Obviously, it is very early in the signing process, and I have no idea of salary parameters already discussed – such as whether any other guys among out top six picks are over slot or under slot guys, but I will throw out a couple scenarios:
1) First rounder Hall gets $3.5M, Conlon goes over slot and the Os have little $ for guys outside the top 10 – maybe getting one guy who will sign for $250k or so..
2) Hall gets closer to $3.2M, Conlon goes over slot by $100k-$200k, and the Os have $600k for Allen and maybe another guy outside the top 10 to get $250k OR Hall and Conlon go over slot and there is little $ for over slot signings after round 10 and the Os stick to their budget pool.
3) Hall signs for about slot, Conlon about slot, and the Os max out their pool $ and have $800k-$1M for Greg Jones and pay the related tax $. IMO, adding Jones would be a significant addition the likes of which we haven’t seen in the draft since giving big $ to Ohlman and Coffey more than a couple years ago. I guess, theoretically, in the best case, with all top picks signing for slot, the Os could sign Jones for $800k and Allen for $500k.
Obviously, the $ for Hall is the big factor. Maybe we knew his number and can meet that or tell him to take less or even slot. How much farther in the draft could Hall have fallen if we didn’t take him? Because, then he is looking at slot $ closer to $2.4M-$2.6M or less – assuming he would sign. We’ll know more soon, but one has to like the possibilities created in the draft by our scouting director when he found Little and Conlon available when they were.
