Relief pitchers are notoriously volatile and every year across the MLB, you see guys having strong seasons out of nowhere and established guys struggle badly. So what follows is a discussion of the Orioles 2018 bullpen depth options. The Alex Cobb signing, the DFA of Jose Mesa Jr., and the optioning of Donnie Hart and Jimmy Yacabonis has brought some clarity to the situation. I’ll be excluding the obvious locks (Brad Brach, Mychal Givens, Darren O’Day, Richard Bleier) and will be looking at contenders for the last 3 bullpen spots and minor league pieces the Orioles could turn to later in the season to deal with injury or ineffectiveness. I’m also leaving Gabriel Ynoa and Chris Lee off since they are currently injured.
Opening Day Bullpen Candidates
There are 3 open spots in the Orioles bullpen with Zach Britton on the DL. There is also an extra spot that will likely need to make a spot start while Alex Cobb finishes his preparation for the season. Here are the candidates.
Mike Wright Jr.
There is a feeling in the warehouse that if they give up on Mike Wright, he’ll end up being a good pitcher for another team. Think Jake Arrieta, but less upside. Wright has always had good stuff with an upper 90s 4S fastball and a mid 90s 2S fastball with sharp late tail. As far as secondaries, there has never been a dominant out pitch but he hasn’t been afraid to try new things, changing pitches, grips, and pitch mixes. He’s thrown multiple versions of a slider, a couple different changeups, a slow curve, and now this spring he’s added a cutter.
I praise the guy for not being afraid to try new things, but at some point the tinkering can be too much. He’s been just ok this spring, but the cutter isn’t a good pitch (it’s a hard contact magnet) and it’s reduced the effectiveness of his slider due to the lack of velocity separation and possibly a reduced feel for it. I’d like to see him as a fastball/slider reliever, throwing 98 and breaking off above average sliders for one inning, maybe mixing in a change against LHB. I don’t know if that’s ever going to happen here, Wright looks like a guy who needs a fresh start. He may make the team, but I have a feeling he won’t last the year without getting DFA.
Nestor Cortes Jr. (L) (My #21 O’s Prospect)
Cortes is a Rule 5 pick so he needs to make the squad or get returned to the Yankees. He’s the embodiment of a crafty lefty. He’s under 6ft, with a fastball that works in the upper 80s at times, relying on command and deception. The margin for error is quite small. He uses multiple arm slots and changes the tempo of his delivery in order to help his stuff play up. What is interesting to me though, is this spring (in the outings I’ve seen) he’s not varying the tempo of his wind-up anymore. He still drops down sidearm at times, but I’m curious if the Orioles had him drop the tempo changes, hesitations, and quick pitches. If so, that could hurt his chances. That said, he’s a lefty who can throw strikes, pitch multiple innings, and start if needed. With an all right-handed rotation, Cortes appears to have a good shot to make the team as a LH long man in the pen.
Miguel Castro
Castro was an excellent addition last year and offers a live arm out of the pen. There has been a lot of talk about stretching him out to start again (he was a starter for awhile in the minors). I have never been a fan of that idea, I like him in the pen where he can air out his excellent fastball that sits 96-98mph with strong armside run. If he can command the fastball decently, he can live off weak contact even when his secondaries are inconsistent. He’s had a rough spring, his release point has been inconsistent, leading to poor command. His fastball velocity has been down as well. It appears that he’s works on a cutter, but it’s not a very good pitch at the moment. The only positive news is that his changeup, which he needs to defend himself vs LHB, has looked better. I think he gets sent to Norfolk to continue the starter experiment.
Pedro Araujo (My #37 O’s Prospect)
Buck just announced that Rule 5 pick Araujo would be making the opening day roster. It’s going to be a big jump for the young man, he’s only pitched 2 innings above High A. Last year he was primarily a fastball/curveball reliever, this spring he’s shown a good changeup as well. What used to be a plus curveball has morphed into a harder/slurvy pitch, the quality isn’t nearly as high as it was last year. His fastball sits around 92, is fairly flat and hittable on the plate. Right now, hitters are getting themselves out against him by swinging at pitches all over the place. This does speak to some deception in his delivery. My concern is that once the book gets out on him, guys will sit fastball and he won’t have the command to get ahead in the count with offspeed pitches.
Joely Rodriguez (L)
Rodriguez is a guy we’ll likely be seeing pitch for the Orioles at some point in 2018. He’s a lefty who is comfortably 95-96 and reportedly touched 100 on a stadium gun this spring. He’s got a low 3/4 arm-slot and a sweeping slider that should make him tough on lefties, although the results haven’t been there in his short MLB stints with the Phillies. He’s been very good this spring, showing improved command and a more controlled delivery. Put that together with the good stuff and you have an interesting reliever with later inning upside. Rodriguez is on a MILB deal with a camp invite, so if he doesn’t make the team, he could go to AAA as a depth piece. One way or another, I think he sees time in Baltimore this season.
Josh Edgin (L)
I don’t have any really strong feelings about Edgin, he’s a guy with some MLB experience who has had Tommy John Surgery and lost velocity. He’s pitched well this spring and could make the team, but he’s really a true LOOGY, he doesn’t have anything to defend himself against RHB. I don’t know if the Orioles have the luxury of carrying a true specialist in their pen. Edgin, like Joely Rodriguez is on a MILB deal and could be stashed in the minors until needed.
Upper Minors Depth
Tanner Scott (L) (My #10 O’s Prospect)
The most upside of anyone on this list, Scott has closer stuff with a triple digit fastball that moves and a slider that is often plus. His control and command are the only thing holding him back, this spring he threw more strikes than ever by toning his velocity down a couple ticks, we’ll see if that strategy continues going forward. He’s ticketed for AAA, where he’ll continue making 3 inning starts so he has a chance to throw more pitches, work on command, and have a work session between outings.
David Hess (My #32 O’s Prospect)
Hess has been a starter his entire career, but has been plagued by inconsistent secondaries. He has good fastball velocity and I’d like to see what he could do in max effort outings as a fastball/curveball reliever. He’s a fringe prospect as a starter, but I think he’s the type who could be much more useful in a different role.
Jimmy Yacabonis (My #46 O’s Prospect)
While they have very different deliveries, Miguel Castro and Yacabonis are similar in the fact they both have big fastballs with plus movement that generate weak contact. Both also lack a real out pitch to miss bats and don’t have great command. The Orioles have stated that they are going to try and stretch Yacabonis out as a starter. I think it’s a bad idea, as he lacks any of the traits you look for in a starter (lower effort delivery, strong pitch mix, good command).
Lucas Long (My #19 O’s Prospect)
I thought Long would get a longer look this spring after a really strong 2017 campaign in which he was one of the very best pitchers in the Eastern League. That didn’t happen, but I still think Long while make his Orioles debut at some point this season. He offers a mid 90s fastball with sink, a hard slider, and an inconsistent changeup. The slider and change probably aren’t good enough for Long to start, but his fastball is excellent at generating groundballs, he has above average command, and is hard to square up. He should provide some valuable depth as a long reliever this summer.
Ryan Meisinger (My #43 O’s Prospect)
Fastball/slider reliever, nothing too special about the stuff, will have to improve command and rely on deception to be more than a depth piece. He should start in AAA and if he keeps getting strong results, he’ll get a chance eventually.
