Before July 31st, I think there could be markets for the following 10 players. Some will obviously bring more return than others, but if this team wants to be competitive (or competent) in the next five years, they need to consider making these moves now to maximize the value of the return.
1. Manny Machado – For obvious reasons. Needs to be the creamiest of the return crop.
2. Jonathan Schoop – Hasn’t heated up yet, but I’m still shopping him bc he has that extra year of control and he’s a premium position. If we sell on him this year, we might be able to get a return similar to the one we can get for Machado.
3. Kevin Gausman – This is the best he has looked in years, and if he can keep it up for another month, we need to sell high. The rest of the league knows he has stuff. Let someone think he’s figured it out, and maybe he does, but even if he becomes an ace, he wouldn’t have been around the next time we’re good anyway.
4. Michael Givens – I used to debate against trading him, thinking he was the closer of the future, but after watching how star relievers have been moved, shopped, and signed around the league the last few seasons, I’m sold on selling high and early on relievers that are destined for high arbitration settlements. These top 4 trade candidates could really bolster our farm system with quality returns.
5. Adam Jones – I see one quality piece in return for him as he will make a decent corner OF for a playoff contender. I think his name power is strong enough to gain interest and get us that one solid prospect back, but it may only be a team’s #5-10 prospect.
6. Brad Brach – Sort of like Jones in name power, but really hasn’t been “shutdown” like he was in the past. I think he gets one quality piece back if he remains in the closer role and stays at least slightly above average. Similar value to Jones in return.
7. Richard Bleier – Has quietly dominated the past couple of seasons, he’s left-handed, affordable, and controllable. Not as valued as Givens, but like Givens, sell high. Might actually get a stronger return than we think depending on the LOOGY market.
8. Danny Valencia – Killing lefties as usual. But that’s it. Someone will need his bat. Won’t get much, but could get something. Maybe a low A RP prospect?
9. Perdo Alvarez – LH version of Valencia. Similar market and outcome essentially.
10. Darren O’day – Has performed well when healthy. The key is keeping him healthy for a few weeks and swinging him quickly. The extra year on the contract could be attractive or scary depending on the next two months of health and performance. Influences the potential return as well. I’m willing to give away for low return to save money.
BONUS: Zach Britton – It’s hard to make commentary on someone that hasn’t thrown a pitch this year. Maybe he won’t. If he does, and he’s even slightly above average, I say swing him for something. I wouldn’t extend the qualifying offer after the season unless he absolutely destroyed the competition and reestablished himself to the point he was guaranteed a mega contract. Probability seems to suggest that outcome as unlikely, so at this point we risk getting nothing at all in return if we don’t trade a healthy Britton.
A return from these 10 (potentially 11) moves would revamp a farm system that is currently in the middle of the pack as far as talent, yet staring down the road at a couple of opportune draft positions over the next couple of seasons. Of course we know what is standing in the way of these moves.
From selling off these 10 players we could have a huge return 16+ new, young, controllable players in the system like that.
Manny = 3-4
Schoop = 3-4
Gausman – 2-3
Givens – 2-3
Jones – 1-2
Brach – 1-2
Valencia, Alvarez, Bleier, O’Day probably bring back 1 apiece.
A good draft this year followed by a 2019 draft where we are drafting in the top 5; that’s a rebuild.
