by Frobby
With a runner on 3rd and less than 2 out, the O’s hit .302. Then, with a runner on 3rd and 2 out, they hit .173, which is abysmal. But, put those two events together and there’s a 47% chance of a run scoring hit. Then you have to add in the possibility that with one out, the next hitter will either hit a long sac fly or some grounder that makes it relatively easy to score. The O’s scored 47% of the time with a runner on 3B and less than 2 out (including the 30% of the time they got a hit), so they got a sac fly or RBI grounder 17% of the time. Add that all up and there was about a 64% chance of scoring with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 out, which is a little below the major league average, but still high enough where you wouldn’t want to take big chances.
