Still with a very high ceiling, 20-year old power hitting 3B prospect Coby Mayo comes in as the #5 prospect.
Coby Mayo
Pos: Third baseman
Bats: R
Throws: R
Age (as of Jun 30th) : 20
2022 Level: A+/AA
Tools (current/future value)
Hit: 35/50
Game Power: 40/60
Raw Power: 60/70
Run: 50/45
Defense: 30/45
Most Likely Future Role: Starting 3rd Baseman/Right fielder/1st Baseman
Ceiling: Starting third baseman, Occasional All-Star
What we know: An overslot ($1.7 million) 4th round selection in the COVID shortened five round 2020 draft, Mayo has put himself squarely on the prospect scene despite not putting up gaudy numbers in his first full season. The Orioles were aggressive with the 20-year old starting him out in Aberdeen (High-A) before moving him to AA (Bowie) by mid-season. Hitting in the tough Sally League in cavernous Ripken Stadium, Mayo still slashed .251/.326/.494/.821 for a 118 wRC+ despite being one of the younger hitters int the league. Those numbers look a lot better when you realize he started of the season slashing .234/.298/.460/.758 through his first 128 PAs before earning a promotion to Bowie after slashing .262/.350/.500/.850 with 9 doubles and seven home runs over his next 143 PAs.
He found AA pitchers to be a bit tougher and to be honest, there were nights where he struggled to compete. With the better assortment of offspeed pitches, his K rate skyrocketed to 34.5% and his walk rate lowered to 8.3%, both career worse. Of course it’s wise to remember that the 20-year old was one of the youngest players in the Eastern League, a full four years youngers than the average age of pitchers in the league.
Mayo generates above average bat speed with an aggressive, violent hip rotation that enables him to create above average exit velocities. He was an ambush hitter at times this season, jumping on early count fastballs. He really never seemed to get comfortable at the plate all season, but part of that may have been the aggressiveness of the promotions.
He runs well for his size but he will slow down with age and will most likely end up a below average runner.
Defensively, Mayo continue to show the above average arm at 3B, but he still struggles with his footwork and frequently throws off the wrong foot or in between steps, particularly on the run where he does not show great body control. At 6-foot-5, it will be hard for him to stay at 3B unless he can improve his footwork but since he runs well and has a cannon, right field might be the first option if 3B does not work out. If neither works out, 1B is the fall back option.
What we don’t know: Mayo held his own overall, but the question is will he come back and make adjustments to the AA offspeed pitches or was his rising K rate a harbinger of future struggles? Defensively he still does some things well at times at the hot corner, but will he need a position change in the next year or two?
What we think: The upside here is why Mayo still ranks over other more physically mature players who had good offensive seasons. While Mayo’s floor is probably the lowest of the players listed in the 4-9 range on this list, he has the highest ceiling of any player not in the top three. We watched how much of a jump that Gunnar Henderson had this past season, and while Mayo most likely will not make the same jumps in plate discipline, he does carry that kind of upside, particularly in the power department.
Had Mayo gone to college, next year would have been his draft year so before you grade him too roughly on his mediocre stats in 2022, grade him on the curve that he deserves and let’s see where he is at the end of next season. We still think Kris Bryant could be a potential comp for Mayo so of all the players in these rankings, he’s the one we may have either underrated at his ranking, or underrated. We’ll have a better idea after next season.
