Back from Tommy John surgery, the 25-year old right-hander got just 10.1 innings under his belt this season but his upside brings him as the #18 prospect.
Seth Johnson
Throws: RHP
Age (as of Jun 30th): 24
2023 Level: FCL/A-/A+/AA
Pitches (current/future value)
Fastball: 55/55
Curveball: 40/45
Change: 30/40
Slider: 40/50
Command: 40/50
Most Likely Future Role: Reliever
Ceiling: Back of rotation starter
What we know: Acquired as a key piece in a three-team Trey Mancini trade, this hard throwing righty missed most of the season recovering from Tommy John surgery, but did come back at the end of the year to get his feet wet on the mound again.
The 6-1, 200 pound Johnson was drafted by Tampa in the 1st round (40th pick) of the 2019 draft after being converted to a pitcher in College due to his arm strength. Johnson was raw, but had a fastball that touched 99-100 MPH in college. Upon his return last this summer, Johnson’s velocity was back to the 94-96 MPH range in short stints though his offspeed pitches clearly were not quite back to pre-injury form.
Prior to the injury, his slider was his best strikeout pitch, but it was inconsistent in his return. He was able to miss bats with the pitch low and away on righties or even down and in on lefties. His curveball has similar shape than his slider, but comes in at 72-75 MPH, but is inconsistent though occasionally showing some power.
While he has thrown a change in the past, he didn’t throw many the season before his injury or upon his return, and it while it has some fade and drop, he doesn’t have great feel for the pitch. The slider works a bit against lefties, but it would be nice to have that pitch that breaks away from them more consistent.
What we don’t know: Will the Orioles continue to try and develop him as a starter or will they convert him to relief to get him to the majors quicker? Can he hold up over 150 or more innings? Can he hold his velocity and command up past 80 pitches?
What we think: It’s hard to get a read on who Johnson really is as a prospect and he gets a bit of a mulligan until he gets a full season under his belt next year. He’s already on the 40-man roster so there could be some interest in converting him to relief and see if there is some value to him in that role. He’ll pitch at 25-years old and only has 148 innings under his belt so moving him to the pen and see if his stuff plays up might be the best play. The fastball does have good carry and if he can pop up to the high-90s in relief, he has the chance to be a high leverage reliever.