Huge breakout year saw this 21-year old start the year tearing up AA only to finish the year tearing up AAA to become the Orioles #3 overall prospect.
Coby Mayo
Pos: Third baseman
Bats: R
Throws: R
Age (as of Jun 30th) : 21
2023 Level: AA/AAA
Tools (current/future value)
Hit: 45/55
Game Power: 50/60
Raw Power: 60/70
Run: 45/40
Defense: 40/45
Most Likely Future Role: 1st Division Starting 3rd Baseman/1st Baseman
Ceiling: 1st division starting third baseman, occasional All-Star
What we know: The first thing you have to realize is this would have been Mayo’s junior draft year and had he developed in college like he did in the pros, it’s not hard to imagine him being the 1-1 pick in the 2023 draft. Instead in he’s already put up a 124 wRC+ in 227 AAA PAs, and that was after a slow start.
Mayo made great strides in all aspects of hitting putting up a combined .427 WOBA and a 156 wRC+ between AA and AAA. He started the year just absolutely destroying AA pitching for a .449 wOBA and 178 wRC+ with career high 14.7% BB rate to go along with a respectable 24.8% K rate while putting up a .296 ISO. His AA season included a .307/.424/.603/1.026 slash line highlighted by 30 doubles and 16 home runs in just 347 PAs before earning a promotion to AAA.
He needed an adjustment period in AAA as the more mature pitchers gave him a assortment of breaking balls that he struggled with at times, slashing just .194/.284/.398/.682 in his first 29 games over 109 PAs. Mayo though not only made the adjustments, he absolutely dominated AAA pitching over the last 37 games slashing .341/.480/.652/1.131 with 9 doubles, 11 homers and an extremely impressive 32 BB – 37 K ratio over 171 PAs.
Mayo is able to make these adjustments because an extremely smart hitter who studies what pitchers are trying to do to him. He can make not only in game adjustments, but will make in at bat adjustments at times and rarely chased once he got comfortable putting up a very respectable 10.3 swing strike rate over the season. He doesn’t miss many mistakes and will make pitchers work by getting into many deep counts looking for his pitch to do damage on.
While he’s still a bit of a pull hitter, he has power to all fields and can hit a ball out of any ball park with his plus raw power and improving game power. His 20.1% FB/HR ratio was second only to Jud Fabian in the organization, and combined with his low 10.3% swinging strike percentage makes that an exciting combination.
Defensively, Mayo also made strides at third base where he worked on moving closer to the hitter and working on a drop step vs positioning himself so deep. This allowed him to come in on balls more effectively and the drop step allowed him to set his feet under him better and use his plus plus arm to throw out runners. Mayo’s throwing accuracy also improved this season with the better footwork and a slightly lowered arm angle though he can still struggle at time when moving to his left. Listed at 6-5, 230 the concern remains whether he will eventually end up too big to play an effective 3B, but for now, he’s shown enough improvements that he can play 3B effectively if a team is going to live with a few more errors then some would like. In his limited play at first base, Mayo took well to the position and looks to be a legitimate option there, though he would waste his plus plus arm.
He’s an average to slightly below average runner so he’s not base clogger, but he will slow with age due to his size. He’s athletic enough and moves well once he get going.
What we don’t know: Mayo has needed to adjust to pretty much every level so it’s reasonable to expect he’ll need an adjustment period at the major league level as well. With a team that should be competing for another AL East crown, will the Orioles be patient enough to give those PAs and how fast can he make that adjustment. Defensively, the question also exists where will he play since the Orioles have several better defensive options at 3B including Gunnar Henderson and Joey Ortiz and with Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn over at 1B barring any trades this off season.
What we think: Mayo would be the #1 prospect in many other organizations and is absolutely an impact positional prospect. After the heater he was on at the end of the 2023 season, he should get an opportunity to win a job with the Orioles next spring or shortly there after if Elias chooses to keep him down a bit longer to add to his 267 AAA PAs. Mayo is going to end up a middle of the order hitter in a major league lineup for years to come.