Frobby’s predictions
Manny Machado: He’s made $5 mm and $11.5 mm the last two years. He’s having a slightly down season but still may finish with 35 HR and 100 RBI. I’m guessing he will make $17 mm next year. For reference points, Josh Donaldson is making $17 mm this year after making $11.6 last year; Nolan Arenado will make $17.75 mm next year after making $11.75 this year.
Zach Britton: He made $3.2 mm, $6.75 mm and $11.4 mm the last three years. He’s been hurt a lot and not nearly as effective this year as in 2014-16. I’ll guess he earns $13.2 mm. Precedent: Chris Davis was raised from $10.35 mm to $12 mm after his lousy 2014 campaign. (edit, pre-injury)
Jonathan Schoop: He made $3.475 mm this year. He’s had a career year and will deserve a nice bump. I’m guessing he makes $8 mm next year. Precedent: Roughned Odor’s long-term deal increases from $3.33 mm to $7.83 mm this year. Also, Manny got a 130% raise in his 2nd year of arbitration after an excellent year.
Kevin Gausman: He’s been a big disappointment. He earned $3.45 mm this year as a Super-2. I’m guessing $5.25 mm for Gausman next year. Precedent: Chris Tillman was raised from $4.315 mm to $6.225 mm after a disappointing 2015 season.
Brad Brach: He made $1.25 mm and $3.05 mm the last two years, beating the Orioles in arbitration this last time. He’s had a decent year, not a great one, and was called into closer duty for a while and was only so-so in that role. My guess is he goes to $5.25 mm. Precedent: Tyler Clippard went from $4.0 mm to $5.875 mm after a nice season where he posted a 2.41 ERA as a setup man. Britton went from $3.2 mm to $6.75 mm after his second year as closer. From a percentage point of view, this is between those two.
Caleb Joseph: He lost his arbitration case and is making $700,000 after a historically bad season. This year he’s having his best year and has earned his way to playing roughly 50% of the time. I haven’t found a really good comp but I think his salary at least triples. Put me down for $2.25 mm.
Tim Beckham: he earned $885 k this year as a Super Two. He’s had a breakout year, especially since being traded to the O’s. He’s got a huge raise coming — to $3 mm? Precedent: Roughned Odor made $1.33 mm as a Super-2, increased to $3.33 mm next year as a part of his long-term deal after a 2.4 WAR, .798 OPS season.
I have $53.95 mm for these 7 players, who made about $34.3 mm this year.
