Inconsistent is the word that probably best describes this 23-year old left-handed starter, but when he was good, he flashed potential of a mid-rotation starter and comes in as the #13 prospect.
Cade Povich
Throws: Left
Age (as of Jun 30th) : 23
2023 Level: AA/AAA
Pitches (current/future value)
Fastball: 50/55
Cutter: 45/50
Sweeper: 45/50
Change: 45/50
Curveball: 40/45
Command: 40/45
Most Likely Future Role: 4th/5th starter
Ceiling: Mid-rotation starter
What we know: When he’s commanding the baseball, he’s one of the best pitching prospect in the system who can flash three solid major league average offerings including a high spin rate fastball that gets a lot of swing and miss up in the zone despite averagish velocity (91-94, t95-96). The issue is he’s still searching for consistency from start to start and just walks too many hitters.
The 23-year old southpaw started off in Bowie alternating good and bad starts over his first six outings before going into a five start funk in mid-May, early June where he put up an ugly 8.47 ERA with batters slashing .325/.426/.554/.980 in five starts. He broke out of that with his best start of his career against Richmond when he went seven innings, allowing just one hit, no walks, and striking out a career high 13 batters.
Unfortunately he had two more bad starts before righting himself to earn a promotion to AAA in late July. In AAA, he had two good starts out of three before bottoming out on August 16th when he allowed nine earned runs on seven hits and two walks in just an innings and two-thirds of work. He finished strong though over his last six starts pitching to a 3.26 ERA, with 40 strike outs and 20 walks while holding batters to a .167/.300/.241/.541 slash over 30.1 innings.
The 6-3 hurler throws five distinct pitches and it could be part off the reason why he’s so inconsistent. His sweeper has really good movement but he struggles to throw it for strikes consistently. the same can be said for the curveball which he buries in the dirt a lot to try and induce chase. If he could land these pitches for strikes more often he will have a better chance of keeping hitters off his fastball. The change will flash average to even plus at times with nice fade and drop and induces swings and misses from right-handers.
What we don’t know: Can he find more consistency with throwing strikes with his offspeed pitches? Can he find the consistency from start to start? He’ll pitch at 24-years old next year and will have two full offseasons under the Orioles program so the hope is he will find a way to keep his mechanics on track and find the zone more.
What we think: Povich is an interesting pitcher because the quality of stuff and ability to go deep into games makes him an intriguing starting pitching prospect. His walk rate climbed to a career high (14.7%/5.8 BB/9) and his strikeouts fell to a career low (10.5 K/9) in his 10 AAA starts, but he held AAA batters to just a .194/.315/.327/.642 slash line. If he can decrease the walks, he could very well be an option for the Orioles in 2024 at some point if they have need. If he puts it all together though he has a chance to become a staple in the Orioles rotation for years to come.
