by Matt Bennett
The team would have to play .600 ball (84 wins in 139 games) to win 90 games. It’s not happening. Dan Duquette did reign over a good Orioles team from 2012-2016 (can’t give him all the credit in those early years because many pieces were already here). As a fan who was born in 1998 (the year the losing streak started), I am grateful for him doing his part in changing a losing culture. Unfortunately, he has made too many mistakes and the product of those mistakes is on the field right now. In this business, if you make too many mistakes, you lose your job. The 2012-2016 window has closed, and I’m operating under the assumption that a new window won’t open up for at least a couple years. Here is how I would breakdown the 40-man roster now that the 2018 chance of contention has vanished.
Our Best Trade Pieces:
1) Machado (FA19)- I don’t really need to explain why the Orioles NEED to trade him, hopefully ASAP.
2) Schoop (FA20) – I know this one will hurt, but if the 2018 Orioles aren’t good, I have a hard time believing the 2019 Orioles will be good. He only has one year of control left after 2018 and he might even bring back a bigger package than Machado considering that. I haven’t heard of any serious extension discussions.
3) Jones (FA19)- Orioles Hall of Famer no doubt but I’m not a sentimental type. Above all the fans want a winning product on the field and Jonesy is a valuable outfielder who is unfortunately on the wrong side of 30 and likely won’t be a capable starting outfielder by the time the Orioles are ready to compete again.
Our Secondary Trade Pieces:
1) Britton (FA19) – He should have been traded a while ago. He is an expensive, often injured closer on the wrong side of 30 (not a piece for the next contending Orioles team). Hopefully he can come back soon enough and pitch decently to cultivate some value.
2) Brach (FA19) – Ditto with Britton justification although he is durable.
3) O’Day (FA20) – Not a terrible contract and a contender might want him down the stretch if he can limit the home-runs.
4) Joseph (FA21) – Although he still has some control left, catching depth is not a weakness of the organization. He has proven to be a solid albeit inconsistent catcher at times. He accumulated a 2.3 and 1.6 WAR in limited work in 2015 and 2017 respectively. Hopefully his offensive production won’t replicate his 2016 season and he is actually somewhat valuable.
5) Alvarez/Valencia/Tillman/Rasmus (FA19) – Just putting them here in case any of them start to look like major league capable players like they have in the past and they amass enough value to get a lower level prospect.
The Contracts We Are Stuck With In The Near Future For Better Or For Worse:
Davis, Trumbo, Cobb, & Cashner
Let’s Evaluate Our Major League Young/Controllable Talent:
1) Bundy – I’m a big fan of Bundy and I think it would be a smart move to extend him now. We don’t want him to have one year of control left just as the Orioles are getting good again. Lock him down and build the future rotation around him. He’s 25 and is the first home-grown stud since Bedard.
2) Gausman – He’s not going to be the front end of the rotation pitcher we wanted, but he’s serviceable nonetheless. He might not be a part of the next Orioles contending team but he could be useful to keep around. No real reason to trade him yet.
3) Mancini – He doesn’t seep to stop hitting, but does he have indisputable 1B/DH power? He could take over long-term once Trumbo is gone via trade (luckily) or free agency.
4) Givens – He could probably be the closer of the bad Orioles teams in the next couple years and accumulate saves (value) until he gets too expensive/on the wrong side of 30.
5) Belier – He could probably be the set-up man of the bad Orioles teams in the next couple years and accumulate holds (value) until he gets too expensive/even older.
6) Santander – He’s clearly over-matched right now but just a couple more weeks until we can control of a decent power-hitting prospect that can regain confidence at Bowie for the rest of 2018.
7) Sisco – I’m also a big fan of Sisco and he can be paired with Austin Wynns for the long-term once Joseph is gone.
8) Beckham – He could probably be the shortstop of the bad Orioles teams in the next couple years and until he gets too expensive/on the wrong side of 30.
9) Araujo – He clearly has electric stuff and is worth the flyer even if he goes throw some rough outings. Hopefully his fate is better than that of Jason Garcia.
10) Rickard – If he can show sustained success at AAA he should get a chance to show he is a capable outfielder.
Capable Relievers Or Waiver Wire Material?
Castro, Wright, Hart, Ynoa, Lee, Yacabonis
