The 24-year old outfielder went from AA to the major leagues this season with a solid offensive season. That offensive potential sees him come in as the #4 prospect in the system.
Heston Kjerstad
Pos: OF
Bats: L
Throws: R
Age (as of Jun 30th) : 24
2023 Level: AA/AAA/MAJ
Tools (current/future value)
Hit: 45/50
Game Power: 45/60
Raw Power: 65/65
Run: 50/45
Defense: 40/45
Most Likely Future Role: Starting right fielder
Ceiling: 1st Division Starting right fielder
What we know: The Orioles 1st pick (2nd overall) in the 2020 made his way from AA to the major league in his second full professional season.
The 24-year old left-handed hitting outfielder’s bat will be his calling card and he had quite a season. Between Bowie (AA) and Norfolk, he hit collected 58 extra base hits including 21 home runs while slashing .303/.376/.529 in 543 PAs. Kjerstad was known for making consistent hard contact putting up a
10% barrel rate, and an 89.5 MPH average exit velocity while making solid contact with 74% Contact and 87% ZCon rates. His 34.7% line drive rate at AAA was heads and shoulders better than anyone in the system.
In his 33 major league PAs, he had a 92.5 EV, 107.6 max EV, and 55% hard hit rate. His first major league hit was a 418 foot home run to right field. He showed no platoon difference in the minors this season, but only received one PA vs left-handers at the major league level.
Kjerstad has no issue with hitting velocity, but can struggle with the down and in sliders at times though he’s shown the ability to make adjustments. There is very little doubt his bat will play at the major league level.
Defensively, Kjerstad is below average in right field who can struggle at times with his jumps and routes. While he has average footspeed when he gets going, he doesn’t have a quick first step. His arm this season seemed to fall off a bit and would now rate as a below average arm, especially for RF. His throws are accurate but inconsistent. Knowing his defensive short comings, the Orioles started to convert him to first base where he made 38 starts. He improved a bit throughout the year but has some ways to go to be playable there at the major league level. He surprisingly struggled on pop ups from the first base position.
On the bases, he has slightly above average sprint speed on the bases and run well on the go, but he does not have a quick first step and will not steal bases.
What we don’t know: While his bat is going to play, the biggest question is where does he play defensively? He’ll get an entre offseason to work on his first base skills and that might be his best place to play in the long run unless his jumps and routes can improve in the outfield. The only question with the bat is penchant to chase the down and in slider out of the zone. He’s not a big strike out guy, but his power output at AAA was a bit of a disappointment so it bares watching how often he can get to his game power in 2024
What we think: Kjerstad is ready to be an everyday major league hitter and depending on the Orioles offseason, it could be as the Orioles everyday RF or first baseman. How often he can get to his game power and his eventual defensive value will determine his overall ceiling.
He’s got all the makings though of being a middle of the order major league hitter.
