Trevor Rogers was one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball last year. This year, he has severely regressed. So the question is pretty simple: was he just extraordinarily lucky last year, unlucky this year, or has his stuff and command actually changed?
After looking through the numbers, I think the answer is a little bit of everything.
Rogers was not a total fluke last year. There were real skills there. But he also was not truly a 1.81 ERA pitcher either. This year, he has had some bad luck, but the regression is not just bad luck. The fastball has become a problem, the contact profile has gotten much worse, and the command has backed up enough that he is not finishing hitters the way he did a year ago.
Key Stats: 2025 vs. 2026
| Stat | 2025 | 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| ERA | 1.81 | 5.77 | Way worse |
| FIP | 2.82 | 4.49 | Way worse |
| xFIP | 3.64 | 4.56 | Worse, but not as extreme |
| WHIP | 0.90 | 1.54 | Way worse |
| AVG allowed | .179 | .286 | Way worse |
| BABIP | .226 | .333 | Huge swing |
| HR/9 | 0.49 | 1.31 | Big damage increase |
| BB/9 | 2.38 | 3.41 | Command/control worse |
| K/9 | 8.45 | 7.86 | Slightly worse |
| SwStr% | 12.5% | 12.5% | Same |
That last number is important.
His swinging-strike rate has not changed. He is still getting whiffs. So this is not a case where Rogers suddenly lost the ability to miss bats. The problem is what is happening when hitters do make contact, and what is happening when he has to come into the zone.
Last year, everything worked. This year, the margin for error has disappeared.
Was He Lucky Last Year?
Yes. I think that is pretty clear.
That does not mean Rogers was bad last year. He was legitimately good. A 2.82 FIP, 12.5% swinging-strike rate, and 0.90 WHIP are strong numbers. But a 1.81 ERA with a .226 BABIP and 0.49 HR/9 is usually not something you should expect to carry forward without some regression.
His 2025 ERA was almost two runs lower than his xFIP. That does not scream fraud, but it does suggest that he was pitching over his true-talent run prevention level.
The pitch-level data backs that up.
Four-Seam Fastball
| Year | BA | xBA | SLG | xSLG | wOBA | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | .158 | .197 | .252 | .375 | .215 | .275 |
| 2026 | .296 | .254 | .537 | .516 | .401 | .368 |
This is the biggest issue.
Last year, his four-seamer got great results. But even then, the expected numbers were saying it was probably not quite that dominant. This year, the actual results and expected results have both gone in the wrong direction.
The four-seamer has gone from a strength to a pitch hitters are doing damage against.
He allowed three home runs on the four-seamer in 153 plate appearances last year. He has already allowed three this year in just 61 plate appearances. That is a big change.
The velocity has not really changed. He averaged 93.0 mph last year and 92.7 this year. The spin is actually up a bit, from 2410 to 2448. The induced vertical break is better too, going from 14.7 to 15.9.
So this is not a “his fastball is dead” situation.
But the pitch has lost some arm-side movement, going from 11.5 inches last year to 10.0 this year. For a 92-93 mph lefty, that matters. If the fastball is a little straighter and he is not commanding it perfectly, big league hitters are going to lift it.
That is exactly what is happening. The four-seamer is allowing a 29-degree launch angle and 91.9 mph average exit velocity. That is dangerous contact.
Changeup
| Year | BA | xBA | SLG | xSLG | wOBA | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | .202 | .259 | .272 | .391 | .225 | .295 |
| 2026 | .333 | .302 | .429 | .401 | .355 | .324 |
The changeup is still getting whiffs. His whiff rate on the pitch is actually up, from 26.9% to 30.2%.
But the contact against it has gotten louder. The average exit velocity is up a bit from 89.4 to 90.8, and the launch angle has gone from -3 to 5. Last year, hitters were beating it into the ground more often. This year, they are getting it in the air more.
That is a big deal because Rogers’ 2025 success was built on more than just missing bats. He also managed contact extremely well. This year, he is not getting the same kind of weak contact.
Sweeper
| Year | Whiff% | PutAway% | xBA | xSLG | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 39.1% | 28.1% | .074 | .153 | .131 |
| 2026 | 44.1% | 27.8% | .119 | .187 | .157 |
This is still his best pitch.
The sweeper remains a legitimate out pitch. It has a 44.1% whiff rate, a 27.8% putaway rate, and a .157 xwOBA. Stuff+ likes it even more this year, jumping from 110 to 122.
If there is one pitch in this arsenal that looks better, or at least just as dangerous, it is the sweeper.
The problem is he only throws it 10.5% of the time. When the fastball and changeup are getting hit this hard, the sweeper probably needs to become a bigger part of how he gets out of trouble.
The Real Problem: Contact Profile
This is where the regression really shows up.
| Stat | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| GB% | 46.4% | 37.3% |
| AIR% | 53.6% | 62.7% |
| LD% | 20.1% | 27.3% |
| PU% | 9.0% | 13.6% |
| Topped% | 32.2% | 26.4% |
| Under% | 23.9% | 32.7% |
| Barrel% | 7.6% | 7.3% |
This is probably the biggest difference between the dominant Rogers and the struggling Rogers.
The barrel rate has not exploded, which is good. But almost everything else has moved in the wrong direction.
He is getting fewer ground balls. He is allowing more air contact. He is allowing more line drives. He is getting fewer topped balls. Hitters are getting underneath the ball more often, and when that happens against a pitcher whose fastball is being lifted, the home runs are going to come.
That is how you go from a .226 BABIP and 0.49 HR/9 to a .333 BABIP and 1.31 HR/9.
Last year, Rogers lived in a sweet spot where hitters made the wrong kind of contact. This year, they are making the right kind of contact.
Has the Stuff Changed?
Not really. At least not in a dramatic way.
| Model | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Stuff+ | 97 | 98 |
| Location+ | 104 | 102 |
| Pitching+ | 100 | 99 |
| botStf | 47 | 52 |
| botCmd | 61 | 53 |
| botOvr | 58 | 53 |
This is what makes the Rogers regression interesting.
The public stuff models do not show a pitcher whose arsenal has fallen apart. Stuff+ has him almost exactly the same. Pitching+ has him almost exactly the same. The bot stuff model actually has his raw stuff better this year.
The biggest drop is command. The bot command number fell from 61 to 53. Location+ dropped slightly from 104 to 102. His BB/9 jumped from 2.38 to 3.41.
So while the raw stuff is not gone, the execution has backed up. That matters because Rogers does not throw 97. He is not overpowering hitters with pure velocity. He needs shape, deception, sequencing and command. When any of those slips, the whole profile gets thinner.
It’s Not Just More Meatballs
One thing that stood out to me is that he is not simply throwing more pitches in the heart of the zone.
His heart-zone rate actually dropped from 28.6% in 2025 to 23.5% in 2026.
So this is not as simple as, “he’s just grooving more pitches.”
The problem looks more like poor efficiency and worse execution in leverage counts. He is walking more hitters, finishing fewer at-bats with the fastball, and hitters are making more contact when he does come into the zone.
His fastball putaway rate has dropped from 23.3% to 13.0%. His fastball strikeout rate has dropped from 29.4% to 16.4%.
That is a big deal. The fastball is still his most-used pitch, but it is no longer getting him out of at-bats.
The Pitch Mix Has Not Changed Much
| Pitch | 2025 Usage | 2026 Usage |
|---|---|---|
| Four-seamer | 40.9% | 41.1% |
| Changeup | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Sinker | 14.9% | 11.2% |
| Cutter | 11.7% | 12.3% |
| Sweeper | 7.5% | 10.5% |
This is basically the same pitcher from a pitch-mix standpoint.
The issue is that the two pitches he uses most, the four-seamer and changeup, are no longer controlling contact the same way. The sweeper looks excellent, but it is not used enough to carry the whole arsenal.
That may be where the Orioles need to make an adjustment.
If the four-seamer is going to keep producing a .401 wOBA and .368 xwOBA, it probably cannot remain a 41% usage pitch without better location or better pairing. The sweeper should probably be used more often, especially as the putaway pitch.
My Take
Rogers’ 2025 was real, but it was not completely sustainable.
He was not some scrub getting lucky for a year. The swing-and-miss was real. The command was better. The contact management was excellent. He limited home runs. He avoided hard damage. He had a legitimate major league arsenal.
But he also had a .226 BABIP, an extremely low home run rate, and a huge gap between his ERA and xFIP. That almost always comes back some.
This year, the pendulum has swung too far the other way. He is probably not truly a 5.77 ERA pitcher either. But I do not think you can just write this off as bad luck.
The fastball has become much more hittable. The changeup is not producing the same weak contact. The ground-ball rate has fallen off. The ball is getting in the air more. His command has slipped. And when hitters do put the ball in play, they are doing more damage.
The most concerning part is this:
His swinging-strike rate is exactly the same as last year, but the results are dramatically worse.
That tells me this is not about a complete stuff collapse. It is about contact quality, execution and fastball effectiveness.
What Needs to Change
The Orioles need to figure out how to get Rogers back to the version that controlled contact. That probably means three things.
First, the fastball plan needs to be adjusted. Either he needs to command it better at the top and edges of the zone, pair it differently, or reduce the usage.
Second, the sweeper probably needs to become a bigger weapon. It is his best swing-and-miss pitch and his best expected-results pitch.
Third, he needs to get back to creating ground balls and bad contact. The 2025 version worked because hitters were topping pitches, beating balls into the ground, and not lifting the fastball consistently. The 2026 version is allowing too much air contact and too many line drives.
Bottom Line
Trevor Rogers was lucky last year, but he was not fake.
He has been unlucky this year, but he has not been blameless.
The truth is somewhere in the middle. Rogers is probably not the dominant sub-2.00 ERA starter he looked like in 2025, but he is also probably not the 5.77 ERA pitcher we are seeing right now.
The stuff has not fallen apart. The whiffs are still there. The sweeper is still a real weapon. But the fastball has become hittable, the contact profile has turned dangerous, and the command has backed up enough to expose the entire arsenal.
That is the difference between the 2025 version and the 2026 version.
Last year, Rogers survived and thrived because hitters made bad contact.
This year, they are not.
